This Market Spotlight report covers the pancreatic cancer market, comprising key marketed and pipeline drugs, clinical trials, recent events and analyst opinion, upcoming and regulatory events, probability of success, patent information, a 10-year disease incidence forecast, and licensing and acquisition deals, as well as presenting drug-specific revenue forecasts.
- The author estimates that in 2017, there were 453,200 incident cases of pancreatic cancer worldwide, and expects that number to increase to 495,900 incident cases by 2026.
- The approved drugs in the pancreatic cancer space target microtubules (tubulin), DNA, DNA synthesis, topoisomerase I, dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase, thymidylate synthase, and epidermal growth factor receptor. These are commonly administered via the intravenous route, with a few select products being available in oral and intratumoral formulations.
- The majority of industry-sponsored drugs in active clinical development for pancreatic cancer are in Phase II. Therapies in development for pancreatic cancer focus on a wide variety of targets. The majority of pipeline drugs for pancreatic cancer are administered via the oral and intravenous routes.
- High-impact upcoming events for drugs in the pancreatic cancer space comprise topline Phase II and Phase III trial results, and patent expirations.
- The overall likelihood of approval of a Phase I pancreatic cancer asset is 2.3%, and the average probability a drug advances from Phase III is 13.6%. Drugs, on average, take 10.3 years from Phase I to approval, compared to 9.2 years in the overall oncology space.
- There have been 44 licensing and asset acquisition deals involving pancreatic cancer drugs during 2014-19. The $1,770m exclusive clinical collaboration agreement signed in 2014 between Bristol-Myers Squibb and Five Prime Therapeutics to explore the combination of Opdivo with FPA008 in six tumor types, including pancreatic cancer, was the largest deal.
- The distribution of clinical trials across Phase I-IV indicates that the vast majority of trials for pancreatic cancer have been in the early and mid-phases of development, with 93% of trials in Phase I-II, and only 7% in Phase III-IV.
- The US has a substantial lead in the number of pancreatic cancer clinical trials globally. The UK leads the major EU markets, while Japan has the top spot in Asia.
- Clinical trial activity in the pancreatic cancer space is dominated by completed trials. Roche has the highest number of completed clinical trials for pancreatic cancer, with 93 trials.
- Roche leads the industry sponsors with the highest number of clinical trials for pancreatic cancer, followed by Eli Lilly.
Pancreatic cancer subtypes
Ablation or embolization
Drugs used specifically for treatment of PNETs
RECENT EVENTS AND ANALYST OPINION
SM-88 for pancreatic cancer (January 18, 2019)
BL-8040 for pancreatic cancer (October 19, 2018)
AM0010 for pancreatic cancer (June 3, 2018)
ERY-ASP for pancreatic cancer (September 8, 2017)
KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
KEY REGULATORY EVENTS
Lutathera's Broad Tumor Indication Aided By Expanded Access Data
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
LICENSING AND ASSET ACQUISITION DEALS
Servier Acquires Shire Oncology Business For $2.4bn
CLINICAL TRIAL LANDSCAPE
Sponsors by status
Sponsors by phase
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Trends in incident cases of pancreatic cancer, 2017-26
Figure 2: Overview of pipeline drugs for pancreatic cancer in the US
Figure 3: Pipeline drugs for pancreatic cancer, by company
Figure 4: Pipeline drugs for pancreatic cancer, by drug type
Figure 5: Pipeline drugs for pancreatic cancer, by classification
Figure 6: SM-88 for Pancreatic Cancer (January 18, 2019): Phase II - Tyme-88-Panc (>1L)
Figure 7: BL-8040 for Pancreatic Cancer (October 19, 2018): Phase IIa - COMBAT/KEYNOTE-202 (w/Keytruda)
Figure 8: AM0010 for Pancreatic Cancer (June 3, 2018): Phase I/Ib - 001
Figure 9: ERY-ASP for Pancreatic Cancer (September 8, 2017): Phase IIb - +/-SOC (EU)
Figure 10: Key upcoming events in pancreatic cancer
Figure 11: Probability of success in the pancreatic cancer pipeline
Figure 12: Licensing and asset acquisition deals in pancreatic cancer, 2014-19
Figure 13: Parent patents in pancreatic cancer, 2019-24
Figure 14: Parent patents in pancreatic cancer, 2024-29
Figure 15: Parent patents in pancreatic cancer, 2029-38
Figure 16: Clinical trials in pancreatic cancer
Figure 17: Top 10 drugs for clinical trials in pancreatic cancer
Figure 18: Top 10 companies for clinical trials in pancreatic cancer
Figure 19: Trial locations in pancreatic cancer
Figure 20: Pancreatic cancer trials status
Figure 21: Pancreatic cancer trials sponsors, by phase
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Incident cases of pancreatic cancer, 2017-26
Table 2: Marketed drugs for pancreatic cancer
Table 3: Pipeline drugs for pancreatic cancer in the US
Table 4: SM-88 for Pancreatic Cancer (January 18, 2019)
Table 5: BL-8040 for Pancreatic Cancer (October 19, 2018)
Table 6: AM0010 for Pancreatic Cancer (June 3, 2018)
Table 7: ERY-ASP for Pancreatic Cancer (September 8, 2017)
Table 8: Historical global sales, by drug ($m), 2013-17
Table 9: Forecasted global sales, by drug ($m), 2019-23
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