Brexit and the Impact on Retail - Thematic Research Report - ResearchAndMarkets.com

DUBLIN--()--The "Brexit and the Impact on Retail - Thematic Research" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

"Brexit and the Impact on Retail - Thematic Research" provides a comprehensive overview of the UK's proposed departure from the European Union and the subsequent impact on retail. It covers macroeconomic and retail market modelling using different scenarios of the Brexit negotiations; analysis of how immigration, the Irish border and changes to tariffs will effect retail markets; and sector analysis of the individual retail markets.

As the UK approaches the 29th March 2019, companies are yet to fully comprehend the impact Brexit will have on retail. As political negotiations and parliamentary votes are yet to settle the final rules and implications of the UK's departure, unknown territory must be navigated in planning for the Brexit transition process.

Brexit outcomes that create trade divisions between the UK and the EU will see a potentially steep increase in food prices. Higher import costs (through tariffs and the falling pound) that retailers will in part pass to consumers as well lack of availability (due to border delays) will result in higher demand and limited supply. This would see prices on basic foodstuffs rise by as much as 10% in a worst-case scenario.

Non-food retail growth is expected to slow significantly in the event of no deal, with the forecast rise in inflation failing to offset a drag on consumer confidence and a sharp decline in volume growth. As a higher proportion of disposable spend would be dedicated to food in the face of high grocery inflation, shoppers will cut back on discretionary spend of non-food categories. Clothing & footwear, homewares and furniture & floorcoverings are expected to be most adversely affected by a reduced spending.

Consumer sentiment has been shown to react immediately to political upheaval with uncertainty being a key factor. The case of a no-deal Brexit or delayed withdrawal will almost certainly have an effect on lowered consumer confidence. However, it is expected that a small proportion of consumers who remain positive regarding the future of Brexit and have the means to do so, will continue to spend. If the Withdrawal Agreement is passed, we would see a minimised effect of lowered confidence on retail spend.

Key Topics Covered:

TIMELINE

SCENARIOS

Withdrawal Agreement/form of relationship with EU/Soft Brexit

No-deal/Hard Brexit

Delayed or no exit/Second referendum

MACROECONOMIC MODELLING

Overview

GDP

Inflation

Interest Rates

Unemployment

Housing

The impact on retail

SCENARIO MODELLING

THE HOT TOPICS

Immigration

Ports & borders

The Irish border

THE COST OF TRADE

Currencies

Imports, exports and tariffs

RETAIL SECTOR ANALYSIS

Food & grocery

Clothing & footwear

Homewares

Health & beauty

Electricals

DIY & gardening

Furniture & floorcoverings

COMPANIES SECTION

CONSUMER SENTIMENT

The impact of Brexit on consumer sentiment

Companies Mentioned

  • Amazon
  • ASOS
  • B&M
  • B&Q
  • Boots
  • Carpetright
  • Dixons Carphone
  • Dunelm
  • IKEA
  • John Lewis & Partners
  • Morrisons
  • Next
  • Poundland
  • Primark
  • Sainsbury's
  • Screwfix
  • ScS
  • Shop Direct
  • Tesco

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/tlj7xk/brexit_and_the?w=4

Contacts

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Related Topics: International Trade

Contacts

ResearchAndMarkets.com
Laura Wood, Senior Press Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com

For E.S.T Office Hours Call 1-917-300-0470
For U.S./CAN Toll Free Call 1-800-526-8630
For GMT Office Hours Call +353-1-416-8900

Related Topics: International Trade