This study presents historical demand data (2006, 2011 and 2016) and forecast (2021) by product (biometric, card-based, keypad/combination) and market (trade and distribution, government, financial, educational, industrial, services, healthcare, air transport, offices, consumer, lodging, other nonresidential).
The study also evaluates company market share and competitive analysis on industry competitors, including:
- ASSA ABLOY
- Robert Bosch
- Honeywell International
- Johnson Controls
- United Technologies
Access Control Sales Driven by Both New Construction and Upgrades
Sales of access control systems in the US will be driven by:
- rising new construction activity, which will support sales of new systems as the number of potential end users expands
- demand for upgrades as newer technologies are adopted, particularly as interest in multi-credential and interoperable systems continues to rise
- declining product costs, which make higher security systems more affordable to a wider variety of end users
Faster gains will be limited to a certain extent by the balance between end users’ perceived risk of and their willingness to invest in access control systems. Even as biometric technology comes down in price, the cost of these systems still outweighs the needs of all but the highest security locations. Similarly, lower cost, more basic electronic systems compete with mechanical locks, which provide similar levels of security at a lower cost.
Mobile and Other Multi-Credential Systems Provide Opportunities for Growth
Gains will result from the increasing trend toward systems that incorporate multiple credentials in one system. Multi-credential systems minimize the risk of access by unauthorized individuals by requiring verification of more than one of the following:
- who they are (e.g., fingerprint, retinal)
- what they have (a card, fob, or mobile credential)
- what they know (a passcode)
The use of mobile credentials has seen particularly strong gains in a variety of settings, including lodging establishments, offices, universities, and some government facilities. The use of these systems has provided a particular boost to sales of the higher value card-based and biometric segments, since most multi-credential systems incorporate at least one of these technologies and are classified here by the most secure technology.
Construction Activity and Shift Toward Newer Technologies Drives Demand in Key Markets
Through 2021, gains will be particularly strong in markets where at least one of two key trends is taking place:
- strong new construction activity, resulting in demand for new installations
- increasing adoption of newer, higher value technologies, which will spur upgrade demand
For example, accelerating construction activity in healthcare and education facilities will result in above average increases in new access control system sales for both markets. Sales to the government market are also expected to be above the industry average, boosted by a shift within the Department of Defense toward higher security biometric readers.
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