Celgene's prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook, encompassing corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance is explored over 2017-27.
- Overview - Celgene is set to experience a 1.8% CAGR during 2017-27 as its products grow to offset strong generic headwinds to its oncology portfolio from 2022.
- Key themes - Revlimid will drive strong mid-term growth of Celgene's oncology portfolio, reaching over $12bn in sales in 2022; Celgene's portfolio will continue to make progress, becoming the company's fastest-growing therapy area, despite recent setbacks to products; Celgene faces a severe patent cliff beginning in 2022 with generic launches for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst set to erode over $9bn from the company's peak expiry portfolio revenue; Celgene's outlook hinges on the success of its launch portfolio, which PharmaVitae forecasts to add $6.3bn in new sales by 2027 and to fully offset the company's declining expiry portfolio revenue.
- Out to 2022 - Over 2017-22 Celgene will experience a 10.1% CAGR, driven by blockbusters Revlimid, Pomalyst, and Otezla.
- Out to 2027 - Sales will peak in 2023 at $21.5bn before declining severely with the launch of Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst generics. However, product revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.8% over the forecast period.
- Pipeline - Celgene's launch products will add $6.3bn in revenue out to 2027, offsetting the company's expiry portfolio. Additionally, significant potential value lies in the company's key pipeline assets, including bb2121, JCAR017, and BGB-A317.
- Lifecycle - Celgene faces a severe patent cliff in 2022 with expiry product revenue set to fall by over $9bn during 2022-27, due to losses of exclusivity for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst. The company's mid-term outlook hinges on its success in preventing early entry of Revlimid generics. Celgene continues to follow an aggressive deal-making strategy to supplement its pipeline and fill the revenue void expected from Revlimid's patent expiry.
- Major events - Acquisitions of Juno and Impact; FDA issued RTF letter for ozanimod in multiple sclerosis; pivotal trial readouts expected for luspatercept, bb2121, and JCAR017.
- Adjusted Revlimid forecast: removed chronic lymphocytic leukemia indication expansion; removed newly diagnosed follicular lymphoma indication expansion
- Early generic entry for Abraxane in Q1 2022
- CC-486's launch delayed to Q4 2019
- Ozanimod's launch in relapsing multiple sclerosis delayed to Q1 2019
- Added fedratinib
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