China which is the key player in the aluminium market has been slashing its aluminium capacity to help stabilise the market as well as reduce pollution. It is estimated that China will cut around 3-4 million tonnes of aluminium capacity this year. This may result in tighter market balance for some time and increase prices.
The current price surge is more driven by non-market forces, though a downward price correction is expected due to weak demand and overproduction. We expect that China's capacity closures will help in better market fundamentals in the short term. However, once the environmental compliance procedure completed, the new and cost efficient supply growth will substantially increase, which may impact the global aluminium market.
The current US administration understands the Chinese origin materials as a significant threat to its industry and is planning to limit it through tariff and other trade barriers arguing to protect its domestic industry and create jobs. However, it is expected that this will likely to impact the automotive sector in the US and will result in higher production costs. Aluminium is not the exception, and other materials such as steel have also been the target of rising trade barriers. If these proposals materialised then, it would result in a global trade war.
The global aluminium demand is still weak but will show some strength over the next ten years. The automotive sector has remained the key driver behind the growth. Most OEMs and auto body producers are located in developed markets so consequently the automotive sector dominates aluminium market in these markets. The usage of aluminium in the automotive sector is growing as aluminium is lighter than steel which makes it more ideal for vehicles. Light vehicles improve fuel efficiency, reduce carbon dioxide emission and are environment-friendly. The current wave of substituting steel with aluminium is mainly supported by the EU emissions scheme and the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulation in the US.
Key Aspects Covered
- How will the aluminium market perform over the next ten years?
- What will be the major trends and developments in the aluminium market and how they will impact the industry?
- How will the increasing use of aluminium in various end use sectors benefit the industry?
- What will be the new revenue streams in the industry?
- What will be the major drivers behind the increase in aluminium demand globally and what are its impact on the economy?
- The future of the Chinese aluminium capacity in the context of the global demand and supply balances
- New capacity developments and closures
- Aluminium prices and premium
- Aluminium costs structure
- The current and future demand dynamics of aluminium in different regions
- Detailed discussions on market strategies and competitive landscapes
- Analysis of the present and future performance of matured and developing markets
Key Topics Covered
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Chapter 2: North America
Chapter 3: Europe
Chapter 4: CIS
Chapter 5: Central and South America
Chapter 6: North East Asia
Chapter 7: South East Asia
Chapter 8: South Asia
Chapter 9: Middle East, Africa and Oceania
Chapter 10: Aluminium Prices and Costs
Chapter 11: End-Use Sectors
Chapter 12: Competitors Landscape
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