NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) released November’s CMBS Trend Watch today. A steady flow of private-label volume continued into November as $9.4 billion priced, bringing the year-to-date total to $80.6 billion. On a year-over-year comparison, this volume represents a 23.2% increase. Based on the forward pipeline, we may still see more than a half dozen deals launch prior to year-end.
We also expect a busy January as we are aware of a number of single borrower transactions that are slated to come to market shortly after CREFC.
In November, KBRA published pre-sales for 11 deals ($8.9 billion), including six conduits, one single borrower, one Freddie K-Series, one CRE CLO, one single-family rental and one small balance commercial. There were 391 surveillance actions during the month, including 388 affirmations, two upgrades and one downgrade. Of the affirmations, 126 were effectuated in conjunction with the release of KBRA’s Single Borrower SFR Comprehensive Surveillance Report on November 15, 2017. As part of November’s surveillance activity, KBRA highlighted 48 KBRA Loans of Concern (K-LOCs), which are loans that are either in default or at heightened risk of default.
The three-month rolling average IO index increased for a second consecutive month in November to 59.3%, surpassing the all-time high of 54.0% set in October. The IO Index, which has been on a steady rise, is being influenced by the increase in full term IOs.
In this edition of Trend Watch, we spotlight the KBRA 2018 CMBS Outlook, which was published November 21, 2017. In the Spotlight Section, we highlight the factors that we considered in our 2018 issuance forecast, as well as an analysis of property market fundamentals and new issue credit metrics.
To view the report, please click here.
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KBRA is a full service credit rating agency registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. In addition, KBRA is recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider and a certified Credit Rating Agency (CRA) by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is registered with ESMA as a CRA.