The research study covers the present scenario and growth prospects of the global electric vehicle (EV) transmission market for 2016-2020. To determine the market size, the study considers revenue generated from single-gear and multi-gear transmission segments.
The single-gear transmission segment was the market leader in 2015, with a market share of 98%. Popular car brands like Renault, VW, BMW, Smart and Ford Focus are some of the key manufacturers utilizing this type of gears. By the end of 2018, Technavio analysts predict that there will be a slightly higher percentage of vehicles being equipped with multi-gear transmission systems.
Region wise, APAC is the largest geographical segment, having a market share of over 41% in 2015. Due to stringent regulations in China pushing for adoption of EVs, the market share of APAC is expected to shoot up to 70% by the end of the forecast period. The sales will mainly be boosted by early adopters and government support. Europe follows APAC in terms of market share, followed by the Americas.
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Technavio analysts highlight the following three factors that are contributing to the growth of the global EV transmission market:
- Government initiatives to promote sales of electric vehicles
- Increased emission of greenhouse gases
- Rise in sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles
Government initiatives to promote sales of electric vehicles
“Most countries around the world are either implementing or have already implemented strict rules to restrict carbon emission from the automotive industry. In Europe, vehicles running on the road are responsible for an estimated 25% of all carbon emissions. Many countries have adopted policies that result in an increase in the price of the vehicle with every increase in CO2 number. Such factors are pushing for the high adoption of electric vehicles,” says Praveen Kumar, one of the lead analysts at Technavio for powertrain research.
Different governments are taking various initiatives to promote the sales of electric vehicles. In China, firms involved in the manufacturing of electric vehicles can claim subsidies from the government. The government is also providing subsidies and other benefits to foreign companies that have their electric vehicle manufacturing unit in China. Additionally, the government is also taking initiatives to develop charging stations. The number of such stations has increased drastically in the past two years, leading to market growth.
Increased emission of greenhouse gases
Electricity generated from fossil fuel sources are responsible for a high percentage of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the US, an estimated 30% of GHG emissions are produced during electricity production from fossil fuels. The next biggest contributor is the automotive industry, producing about 26% of all GHG emissions, from sources inclusive of the burning of fossil fuels from cars, trucks, bus, ships, planes, and trains.
These numbers have brought together major economies to decide on a long-term course of action to curb GHG emissions. The US, the EU, China, and other countries are focusing on going ‘green’ by pushing for adoption of EVs, thereby reducing carbon emission significantly. Most of the countries are providing incentives and granting aids to promote the sales of electric vehicles.
Rise in sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles
“The world is witnessing the introduction of a lot of hybrid electric vehicles in the market, which combines the advantages of both electric motors as well as gasoline engines. Plug-in hybrids have high-capacity batteries that can be charged to store high densities of electricity, thereby reducing gasoline consumption,” says Praveen.
Hybrid engines are equipped with advanced technologies such as regenerative braking, automatic start and stop, and electric motor assists. Additionally, concern over the increase in GHG emissions has led to the rise in the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have several benefits such as reduced air pollution and sound pollution, better fuel economy, and decreased consumption of the engine oils. These factors further encourage customers to buy EVs.
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Technavio analysts employ primary as well as secondary research techniques to ascertain the size and vendor landscape in a range of markets. Analysts obtain information using a combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches, besides using in-house market modeling tools and proprietary databases. They corroborate this data with the data obtained from various market participants and stakeholders across the value chain, including vendors, service providers, distributors, re-sellers, and end-users.
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