Fitch Rates J.P. Morgan Mortgage Trust 2016-1

NEW YORK--()--Fitch Ratings has assigned the following ratings to J.P. Morgan Mortgage Trust 2016-1 (JPMMT 2016-1):

--$350,762,000 class A-3 exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$350,762,000 class A-4 exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$263,072,000 class A-5 exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$263,072,000 class A-6 certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$87,690,000 class A-7 exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$87,690,000 class A-8 exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$70,229,000 class A-9 exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$70,229,000 class A-10 certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$17,461,000 class A-11 exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$17,461,000 class A-12 certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$35,076,000 class A-13 exchangeable certificates 'AA+'; Outlook Stable;

--$35,076,000 class A-14 certificates 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable;

--$350,762,000 class A-X-3 notional exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$263,072,000 class A-X-4 notional certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$87,690,000 class A-X-5 notional exchangeable certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$70,229,000 class A-X-6 notional certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable

--$17,461,000 class A-X-7 notional certificates 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable

--$35,076,000 class A-X-8 notional certificates 'AA+sf; Outlook Stable;

--$4,952,000 class B-1 certificates 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$9,285,000 class B-2 certificates 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;

--$6,190,000 class B-3 certificates 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$3,095,000 class B-4 certificates 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable.

Fitch will not be rating the following certificates:

--$385,838,000 class A-1 exchangeable certificates;

--$385,838,000 class A-2 exchangeable certificates;

--$385,838,000 class A-X-1 notional certificates;

--$385,838,000 class A-X-2 notional exchangeable certificates;

--$3,301,428 class B-5 certificates.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

High-Quality Mortgage Pool (Positive): The collateral pool consists of high-quality 30-year, fixed-rate, fully amortizing loans to borrowers with strong credit profiles, low leverage and large liquid reserves. The pool has a weighted average (WA) FICO score of 763 and an original combined loan-to-value (CLTV) ratio of 73.3%. The collateral attributes of the subject pool are largely consistent with recent JPMMT transactions issued in 2015.

Geographically Diverse Pool (Positive): The pool's primary concentration risk is in California, where approximately 30% of the collateral is located. Approximately 42% of the pool is located in the top five regions in the subject pool (Atlanta, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle and New York). However, these concentrations show significant improvement over many of the JPMMT deals rated by Fitch in 2015, in which over 50% of the pool was concentrated in California and over 80% in the top five regions. As a result, no geographic concentration penalty was applied.

Straightforward Deal Structure (Positive): The mortgage cash flow and loss allocation are based on a senior-subordinate, shifting-interest structure, whereby the subordinate classes receive only scheduled principal and are locked out from receiving unscheduled principal or prepayments for five years. The lockout feature helps maintain subordination for a longer period should losses occur later in the life of the deal. The applicable credit support percentage feature redirects subordinate principal to classes of higher seniority if specified credit enhancement (CE) levels are not maintained.

To mitigate tail risk, which arises as the pool seasons and fewer loans are outstanding, a subordination floor of 1.25% of the original balance will be maintained for the senior certificates, with an additional subordination floor of 1.30% for the subordinate certificates. Additionally, there is no early stepdown test that might allow principal prepayments to subordinate bondholders earlier than the five-year lockout schedule.

Leakage from Reviewer Expenses (Negative): The trust is obligated to reimburse the breach reviewer, Pentalpha Surveillance LLC (Pentalpha), each month for any reasonable out-of-pocket expenses incurred if the company is requested to participate in any arbitration, legal or regulatory actions, proceedings or hearings. These expenses include Pentalpha's legal fees and other expenses incurred outside its annual fee schedule and are not subject to a cap or certificateholder approval.

Furthermore, certificateholders are obligated to pay Pentalpha a termination fee of $140,000 to terminate the contract. While Fitch accounted for the potential additional costs by upwardly adjusting its loss estimation for the pool, Fitch views this construct as adding potentially more ratings volatility than those that do not have this type of provision.

Extraordinary Expense Adjustment (Negative): Extraordinary expenses, which include loan file review costs, arbitration expenses for enforcement of the reps and additional fees of Pentalpha, will be taken out of available funds and not accounted for in the contractual interest owed to the bondholders. This construct can result in principal and interest shortfalls to the bonds, starting from the bottom of the capital structure. To account for the risk of these noncredit events reducing subordination, Fitch adjusted its loss expectations upward by 40 bps at the 'AAAsf' level.

Tier 3 Representation and Warranty Framework (Negative): Fitch believes the value of the rep and warranty framework is diluted by the presence of qualifying and conditional language in conjunction with sunset provisions, which reduces lender breach liability. While Fitch believes the high credit-quality pool and clean diligence results mitigate these risks, the agency considered the weaker framework in its analysis.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Fitch's analysis incorporates a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate how the ratings would react to steeper market value declines (MVDs) than assumed at the MSA level. The implied rating sensitivities are only an indication of some of the potential outcomes and do not consider other risk factors that the transaction may become exposed to or may be considered in the surveillance of the transaction. Two sets of sensitivity analyses were conducted at the state and national levels to assess the effect of higher MVDs for the subject pool.

This defined stress sensitivity analysis demonstrates how the ratings would react to steeper MVDs at the national level. The analysis assumes MVDs of 10%, 20%, and 30%, in addition to the model projected 5.8%. The analysis indicates that there is some potential rating migration with higher MVDs, compared with the model projection.

Fitch also conducted sensitivities to determine the stresses to MVDs that would reduce a rating by one full category, to non-investment grade, and to 'CCCsf'.

DUE DILIGENCE USAGE

Fitch was provided with due diligence information on 100% of the loans in the collateral pool from AMC Diligence, LLC (AMC), Inglet Blair LLC (Inglet Blair) and Opus Capital Markets Consultants (Opus). Fitch received certifications indicating that the loan-level due diligence was conducted in accordance with its published standards for reviewing loans and in accordance with the independence standards outlined in its criteria. While the diligence results showed minimal findings, some exceptions were noted. To account for these differences, Fitch adjusted the original appraisal value for one loan (due to a property value variance) to derive its loss expectations, which did not have a material impact on the agency's initial projections. Fitch believes the overall results of the review generally reflected strong underwriting controls.

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.

Sources of Information:

In addition to the information sources identified in Fitch's criteria listed below, Fitch's analysis incorporated data tapes, due diligence results, deal structure and legal documents provided on the transaction's 17g5 website available on 'www.structuredfn.com'.

Applicable Criteria

Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 May 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744158

Exposure Draft: Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 Apr 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=878412

Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 27 Jun 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=883130

Rating Criteria for U.S. Residential and Small Balance Commercial Mortgage Servicers (pub. 23 Apr 2015)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=864368

U.S. RMBS Cash Flow Analysis Criteria (pub. 15 Apr 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=880006

U.S. RMBS Loan Loss Model Criteria (pub. 12 May 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=880673

U.S. RMBS Master Rating Criteria (pub. 27 Jun 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=882350

U.S. RMBS Surveillance and Re-REMIC Criteria (pub. 17 Jun 2016)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=881806

Related Research

J.P. Morgan Mortgage Trust 2016-1 - Appendix

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=882759

Additional Disclosures

Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf_frame.cfm?pr_id=1008293

ABS Due Diligence Form 15E 1

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf15E_frame.cfm?pr_id=1008293&flm_nm=15e_1008293_1.pdf

ABS Due Diligence Form 15E 2

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf15E_frame.cfm?pr_id=1008293&flm_nm=15e_1008293_2.pdf

ABS Due Diligence Form 15E 3

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf15E_frame.cfm?pr_id=1008293&flm_nm=15e_1008293_3.pdf

Solicitation Status

https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=1008293

Endorsement Policy

https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&detail=31

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Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Matthew Shaw, +1-212-908-0217
Associate Director
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY 10004
or
Secondary Analyst
Ryan O'Loughlin, +1-212-908-0387
Associate Director
or
Committee Chairperson
Roelof Slump, +1-212-908-0705
Managing Director
or
Media Relations, New York
Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com

Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Matthew Shaw, +1-212-908-0217
Associate Director
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY 10004
or
Secondary Analyst
Ryan O'Loughlin, +1-212-908-0387
Associate Director
or
Committee Chairperson
Roelof Slump, +1-212-908-0705
Managing Director
or
Media Relations, New York
Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com