LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--An immense wave of progress for patients is posing increasingly challenging questions for policymakers, payers and healthcare stakeholders in Western Europe, according to a new report released today by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight.
The IHS Life Sciences report, entitled Comparative Healthcare Financing Trends in Europe: A Retrospective and Forward-Looking View, examines healthcare financing trends between two periods: 2010 to 2014 and 2015 through 2020. Countries in the study include France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. The diverse set of healthcare systems, pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement policies, economic conditions and political circumstances in these countries enabled the team to model pricing structures through a variety of systems.
“One of our key findings is that the next wave of treatment breakthroughs coincides with a period when cost containment is firmly on the healthcare system agenda,” said Cameron Lockwood, senior consultant at IHS Life Sciences and the report’s author. “A wealth of new treatments and innovations, specifically in the cancer field, will reach the market at a time when many countries are on cost-saving drives.”
Emerging new treatments and continued economic recovery will contribute to an uptick in public reimbursement spending on pharmaceuticals, the IHS report says. In some countries, this spending is forecast to be less as a share of overall public health expenditure compared to 2014, raising question marks over the ability to finance innovations in therapy.
Between 2015 and 2020, growth in public healthcare expenditure is expected to remain negative or subdued
Under a variety of different growth scenarios, forecast public reimbursement spending on oncology medicines is set to account for a share of overall public drug spending broadly similar to current expenditure patterns. A bottom up, budget impact modelling approach suggests that these growth scenarios are able to accommodate significant new therapy classes in some of the most common cancers.
The reality remains that certain countries will nonetheless face pronounced budgetary pressures. “This is true in the case of a country such as Poland, where pre-existing gaps in access mean that maintaining or only marginally increasing the budget for oncology medicines poses a risk to access to future innovations,” Lockwood said. “Competing government priorities stemming from campaign pledges limit resources, and there has reportedly been a slowdown in the number of innovative new drugs securing reimbursement listing.”
The report also highlights Spain as another country where, depending on the resolution of political uncertainty, ongoing deficit challenges may result in constrained resources and thus more pronounced challenges in sustaining access to emerging treatments. The next government in Spain is expected to make significant healthcare budget adjustments in order to meet deficit objectives. Germany is predicted to see a negative CAGR in total public healthcare spending over 2015-20. France’s social security deficit challenges reduces spending growth to an historic low.
To make up the difference, between 2015 and 2020, rates of growth of private healthcare expenditures are once again predicted to exceed those of public outlays
About the report
This report considers the structure of the healthcare market in each country in regards to public and private contributions, how expenditure is distributed across different categories of care, and the evolution of pharmaceutical spending both in general and with a particular focus on oncology. Exploration of these broad trends in financing is joined by a consideration of policies pursued by these countries, which have enabled them to support access to innovations in treatment while managing costs. This retrospective analysis lays the groundwork for a forecast of future trends through to 2020, looking to identify how market structures and government policies are likely to position countries going forward.
In order to forecast future trends in expenditure, the analysis relies on a number of data sources and methodologies. Top-line projections for overall healthcare and pharmaceutical spending and the components of private market expenditure come from the IHS World Markets Healthcare Forecasts service, which derives its forecasts based on projected economic growth and historical relationships between that growth and various healthcare expenditure indicators. Economic growth forecasts derive from the comprehensive macroeconomic data comprising the IHS World Economic Service. Our PharmOnline International (POLI) service was utilised to obtain country-specific prices and estimated prices for the drugs used in the budget-impact analysis.
This report was commissioned by AstraZeneca. All research and analysis were undertaken independently by IHS Life Sciences.
About IHS Life Sciences
The IHS Life Sciences practice provides a portfolio of intelligence solutions to optimise the performance of companies and organizations across the pharmaceutical, biotech, generics, medical device, hospital, insurance, and public sectors. Our key focus is to provide actionable insights to support strategic decision making, particularly in the fields of market access, pricing and reimbursement (P&R), emerging markets, generics strategies, therapeutic development pathways, forecasting and market sizing, and general competitive intelligence. This analysis is based on our proprietary global data in pharmaceutical pricing, reimbursement information, clinical trials, and healthcare forecasting.
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of insight, analytics and expertise in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 140 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, profitable growth and employs nearly 9,000 people in 33 countries around the world.
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