FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to decline by 7.3% year over year in 2016 according to an updated forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. The outlook continues to call for progressively smaller declines through 2017 followed by stable volume in 2018. However, growth in 2016 is now expected to be roughly 2% below earlier projections as conditions have been weaker than expected. Growth in the first quarter of 2016 (1Q16) came in at -12.5%, just below IDC's forecast of -11.3%, and inhibitors such as weak currencies, depressed commodity prices, political uncertainty, and delayed projects continue to constrain shipments.
Although growth rates for devices such as phones and tablets continue to fall, potentially reducing the competitive pressure on PCs, we have not seen this translate into stronger PC shipments. The financial pressure on consumers across regions, and the availability of alternatives such as delaying a PC replacement by using a free Windows 10 upgrade or relying more on other devices continues to pressure consumer PC shipments. Similarly, while a large share of enterprises are evaluating Windows 10, the pace of new PC purchases has not yet stabilized commercial PC shipments.
Detachable Tablets also present a growing challenge as specs and price increasingly compare favorably against notebook PCs. Combining detachable tablets with PCs, the market is projected to decline by just over 2 percent in 2016 with small positive growth in later years, though still falling well short of peak shipments.
"The latest update reflects continuing pressure on PC shipments, but does not significantly change the factors driving the market," said Loren Loverde, vice president, Worldwide Tracker Forecasting and PC research. "In addition, we have now had four consecutive quarters of double-digit volume declines. This type of prolonged slump is unprecedented, and lowers the bar for some improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the PC market still faces some persistent challenges, and for now, improvement continues to mean slower declines."
"Although inventory has improved in some markets, channels remain extremely conservative," said Jay Chou, research manager, Worldwide PC Tracker, "The economic and competitive pressures are particularly affecting the consumer segment, which is projected to see another year of double-digit declines in 2016, and decline throughout the forecast. In contrast, commercial shipments are projected to decline just 4.4% in 2016 and see slightly positive growth for the next few years."
The U.S. PC market suffered a rough opening salvo. "There are some strong market drivers imminent," said Linn Huang, research director, Devices & Displays. "Chromebooks should continue their rapid ascent in U.S. K-12 as we enter the peak education buying season. We also believe that some organizations will have been testing Windows 10 throughout the year and will start the transition in earnest towards the end of the year. Still, the backdrop to all of that remains an ever softening consumer PC market."
|PC Shipments by Product Category and Region (Shipments in millions)|
|Portable PC Total||152.3||59.6%||155.3||62.2%||0.4%|
|Desktop PC Total||103.3||40.4%||94.2||37.8%||-1.8%|
|Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, June 2016|
* Forecast data
Table Note: Mature Markets include U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada. Emerging Markets include Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Middle East, and Africa (MEA).
Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs which possess non-detachable keyboards, and do not include handhelds or tablets such as the Apple iPad, Microsoft Surface Pro, or Android Tablets.
In addition to the table above, an interactive graphic illustrating worldwide Desktop and Portable PC shipments and total PC market growth for 2014-2017 is available here. Instructions on how to embed this graphic into online news articles and social media can be found by viewing this press release on IDC.com.
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in more than 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or email@example.com.
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International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and Events Company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC.
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