NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings expects to assign the following ratings and Rating Outlooks to the notes issued by Honda Auto Receivables 2016-2 Owner Trust:
--$436,900,000 class A-1 'F1+sf';
--$420,000,000 class A-2 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$500,000,000 class A-3 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$143,100,000 class A-4 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$38,461,538.88 Certificates 'NR'.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Strong Credit Quality: The credit quality of 2016-2, as measured by the weighted average (WA) Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) score of 763 and internal credit score tiering, is consistent with recent pools. New vehicles total 92.52% of the pool, and the WA seasoning is 13.28 months.
Consistent Credit Enhancement (CE) Structure: The cash flow distribution is a sequential-pay structure. Initial hard CE is 2.75% (subordination of 2.50% and a 0.25% reserve). A yield supplement account (YSA) increases the effective WA APR and, thus, excess spread (XS), which totals 2.21%, down slightly from 2016-1.
Strong Portfolio/Securitization Performance: Losses on AHFC's portfolio and 2010-2015 securitizations have been low historically and remained well below peak levels in 2008 due to stronger quality originations and healthy used vehicle values. Fitch's base case loss proxy remains at 0.90%; however, pool factor projections of recent HAROT securitizations suggest 2016-2 could be expected to perform within a 0.35%-0.45% range, assuming stable macroeconomic conditions.
Stable Corporate Health: Fitch rates AHFC 'F1' and its parent, Honda, 'F1/A'/Stable. AHFC has recorded positive corporate financial results in recent years, while the overall health of Honda has remained strong.
Consistent Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: AHFC demonstrates adequate capabilities as originator, underwriter and servicer, as evidenced by historical portfolio delinquency and loss experience, and securitization performance. Fitch deems AHFC capable of servicing 2016-2.
Legal Structure Integrity: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of AHFC would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case. This in turn could result in potential rating actions on the notes. Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to all classes of 2016-2 to increased losses over the life of the transaction. Fitch's analysis found that the notes display limited sensitivity to increased defaults and losses, showing no expected impact on the rating of the notes under Fitch's moderate (1.5x base case loss) scenario. The notes could experience a downgrade of up to two rating categories under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss) scenario.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Fitch was provided with third-party due diligence information from KPMG LLP. The third-party due diligence focused on a random sample of 287 receivables selected from the 99,492 receivables (as of March 31, 2016). A comparison was made of the various attributes of each of the selected receivables (first payment date, original amount financed, among others) in the data file to contractual documents provided by the company. Based on the results of the procedures, KPMG concluded with a 99% confidence level that the maximum estimated error occurrence rate for each of the attributes does not exceed 5%.
A copy of the ABS Due Diligence Form-15E received by Fitch in connection with this transaction may be obtained through the link found at the end of this rating action commentary.
Fitch's analysis of the Representations and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in the report titled 'Honda Auto Receivables 2016-2 Owner Trust -- Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in the special report 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' dated March 2, 2016.
Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.
Criteria for Servicing Continuity Risk in Structured Finance (pub. 17 Dec 2015)
Exposure Draft: Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 Apr 2016)
Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 06 Jul 2015)
Rating Criteria for U.S. Auto Loan ABS (pub. 21 Mar 2016)
Honda Auto Receivables 2016-2 Owner Trust - Appendix
Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
ABS Due Diligence Form 15E 1