Fitch Rates AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4

CHICAGO--()--Fitch Ratings assigns the following ratings and ratings Outlooks to AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 (AMCAR 2015-4):

--$175,000,000 class A-1 notes 'F1+sf';

--$100,000,000 class A-2A notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$235,000,000 class A-2B notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$202,170,000 class A-3 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$76,720,000 class B notes 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$95,240,000 class C notes 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;

--$93,651,000 class D notes 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;

--$22,219,000 class E notes 'NR'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Consistent Credit Quality: The 2015-4 pool displays consistent credit quality relative to recent pools based on the weight average (WA) Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) score and internal credit scores. Extended term contracts (over 60-month loan terms) continue to account for the majority of the pool at 93%. New vehicles total 51% of the pool, consistent with recent AMCAR transactions.

Consistent Credit Enhancement: The cash flow distribution is a sequential-pay structure. Initial hard credit enhancement (CE) is consistent with recent transactions. The reserve is 2.00% (nondeclining) and initial overcollateralization (OC) is 5.50% growing to a target of 14.50% of the outstanding pool balance (less the required reserve amount for the distributing period). Excess spread has decreased to approx. 8.00% per annum down from 8.23% in 2015-3.

Stable Portfolio/Securitization Performance: Losses on GM Financial's managed portfolio and securitizations are stable and relatively low, supported by the gradual economic recovery and stable used vehicle values. The cumulative base case loss proxy for this pool is 11.30%.

Solid Corporate Health: Fitch rates GM and GM Financial Company Inc. 'BBB-' with a Stable Rating Outlook. The recent corporate upgrade reflects the ongoing fundamental improvement in the company's core business over the past several years.

Consistent Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: AFSI demonstrates adequate abilities as originator, underwriter, and servicer as evidenced by historical portfolio and securitization performance. Fitch deems AFSI capable of adequately servicing 2015-4.

Legal Structure Integrity: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of GM Financial would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case. This in turn could result in Fitch taking negative rating actions on the notes.

Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 to increased credit losses over the life of the transaction. Fitch's analysis found that the transaction displays some sensitivity to increased defaults and credit losses. This shows a potential downgrade of one or two categories under Fitch's moderate (1.5x base case loss) scenario, especially for the subordinate bonds. The notes could experience downgrades of three or more rating categories, potentially leading to distressed ratings (below 'Bsf') or possibly default, under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss) scenario.

DUE DILIGENCE USAGE

Fitch was provided with third-party due diligence information from Deloitte and Touche, LLP. The third-party due diligence focused on comparing or recomputing certain information with respect to 200 loans from the statistical data file. Fitch considered this information in its analysis and the findings did not have an impact on our analysis/conclusions. A copy of the ABS Due Diligence Form-15E received by Fitch in connection with this transaction may be obtained through the link contained on the bottom of this rating action commentary.

Fitch's analysis of the Representations and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in the reports titled 'AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 -- Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in the special report 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' dated June 12, 2015.

Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the accompanying presale report, available at 'www.fitchratings.com' or by clicking on the link.

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.

Applicable Criteria

Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 May 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744158

Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds: Derivative Addendum (pub. 14 May 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=744175

Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions and Covered Bonds (pub. 19 Dec 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=838868

Fitch's Interest Rate Stress Assumptions for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds - Excel File (pub. 22 Dec 2014)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=840189

Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 06 Jul 2015)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=867952

Rating Criteria for U.S. Auto Loan ABS (pub. 15 Oct 2015)

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=872046

Related Research

AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 -- Appendix

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=873098

Additional Disclosures

Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf_frame.cfm?pr_id=993897

ABS Due Diligence Form 15E 1

https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf15E_frame.cfm?pr_id=993897&flm_nm=15e_993897_1.pdf

Solicitation Status

https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=993897

Endorsement Policy

https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&detail=31

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Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Margaret Rowe, +1-312-368-2097
Director
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
70 W Madison Street
Chicago, IL 60602
or
Secondary Analyst
Cole MacKenzie, +1-212-908-0830
Associate Analyst
or
Committee Chairperson
Du Trieu, +1-312-368-2091
Senior Director
or
Media Relations
Sandro Scenga, New York, +1-212-908-0278
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com

Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Margaret Rowe, +1-312-368-2097
Director
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
70 W Madison Street
Chicago, IL 60602
or
Secondary Analyst
Cole MacKenzie, +1-212-908-0830
Associate Analyst
or
Committee Chairperson
Du Trieu, +1-312-368-2091
Senior Director
or
Media Relations
Sandro Scenga, New York, +1-212-908-0278
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com