CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings assigns the following ratings and ratings Outlooks to AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 (AMCAR 2015-4):
--$175,000,000 class A-1 notes 'F1+sf';
--$100,000,000 class A-2A notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$235,000,000 class A-2B notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$202,170,000 class A-3 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$76,720,000 class B notes 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$95,240,000 class C notes 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--$93,651,000 class D notes 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$22,219,000 class E notes 'NR'.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Consistent Credit Quality: The 2015-4 pool displays consistent credit quality relative to recent pools based on the weight average (WA) Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) score and internal credit scores. Extended term contracts (over 60-month loan terms) continue to account for the majority of the pool at 93%. New vehicles total 51% of the pool, consistent with recent AMCAR transactions.
Consistent Credit Enhancement: The cash flow distribution is a sequential-pay structure. Initial hard credit enhancement (CE) is consistent with recent transactions. The reserve is 2.00% (nondeclining) and initial overcollateralization (OC) is 5.50% growing to a target of 14.50% of the outstanding pool balance (less the required reserve amount for the distributing period). Excess spread has decreased to approx. 8.00% per annum down from 8.23% in 2015-3.
Stable Portfolio/Securitization Performance: Losses on GM Financial's managed portfolio and securitizations are stable and relatively low, supported by the gradual economic recovery and stable used vehicle values. The cumulative base case loss proxy for this pool is 11.30%.
Solid Corporate Health: Fitch rates GM and GM Financial Company Inc. 'BBB-' with a Stable Rating Outlook. The recent corporate upgrade reflects the ongoing fundamental improvement in the company's core business over the past several years.
Consistent Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: AFSI demonstrates adequate abilities as originator, underwriter, and servicer as evidenced by historical portfolio and securitization performance. Fitch deems AFSI capable of adequately servicing 2015-4.
Legal Structure Integrity: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of GM Financial would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case. This in turn could result in Fitch taking negative rating actions on the notes.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 to increased credit losses over the life of the transaction. Fitch's analysis found that the transaction displays some sensitivity to increased defaults and credit losses. This shows a potential downgrade of one or two categories under Fitch's moderate (1.5x base case loss) scenario, especially for the subordinate bonds. The notes could experience downgrades of three or more rating categories, potentially leading to distressed ratings (below 'Bsf') or possibly default, under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss) scenario.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Fitch was provided with third-party due diligence information from Deloitte and Touche, LLP. The third-party due diligence focused on comparing or recomputing certain information with respect to 200 loans from the statistical data file. Fitch considered this information in its analysis and the findings did not have an impact on our analysis/conclusions. A copy of the ABS Due Diligence Form-15E received by Fitch in connection with this transaction may be obtained through the link contained on the bottom of this rating action commentary.
Fitch's analysis of the Representations and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in the reports titled 'AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 -- Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in the special report 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' dated June 12, 2015.
Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the accompanying presale report, available at 'www.fitchratings.com' or by clicking on the link.
Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.
Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (pub. 14 May 2014)
Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds: Derivative Addendum (pub. 14 May 2014)
Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions and Covered Bonds (pub. 19 Dec 2014)
Fitch's Interest Rate Stress Assumptions for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds - Excel File (pub. 22 Dec 2014)
Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub. 06 Jul 2015)
Rating Criteria for U.S. Auto Loan ABS (pub. 15 Oct 2015)
AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2015-4 -- Appendix
Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
ABS Due Diligence Form 15E 1