Fitch: US Credit Card ABS to Withstand Potential Rate Rise

NEW YORK--()--U.S. credit card ABS metrics will remain in record territory near term despite the potential for interest rate rises as early as September, Fitch Ratings says.

We expect our prime indices to remain at record levels this month. Both chargeoffs and delinquency rates are expected to be steady, with slight improvement in chargeoffs for the month. The monthly payment rate (MPR), a measure of how quickly cardholders pay back their balances, is expected to rise, while gross yield is anticipated to drop.

Retail metrics for the most part will also remain strong, with a decline in chargeoffs. Retail 60+ day delinquencies will likely remain near their previous record lows, and MPRs are expected to remain virtually unchanged.

This preliminary data reflect the July reporting period (as of July 31, 2015) and August distribution date. Actual results will be available in early September.

The strength of the performance metrics and the continuing recovery of the job market indicate that any reasonable interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to have any impact on credit card ABS. MPRs are more susceptible to interest rate movement as the percentage of consumers making smaller credit card payments may increase. However, we would expect the impact on delinquencies and chargeoffs to be less immediate and consumers to divert a greater proportion of their disposable income to service higher payments on other debts.

A steep increase in interest rates is highly unlikely, and therefore, we expect credit card ABS metrics to remain stable in the near term.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com.

The above article originally appeared as a post on the Fitch Wire credit market commentary page. The original article, which may include hyperlinks to companies and current ratings, can be accessed at www.fitchratings.com. All opinions expressed are those of Fitch Ratings.

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Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Herman Poon
Director
U.S. Structured Finance
+1 212 908-0847
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY
or
Stephanie Lobaccaro
Associate Analyst
U.S. Structured Finance
+1 212 908-0769
or
Rob Rowan
Senior Director
Fitch Wire
+1 212 908-9159
or
Media Relations:
Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com

Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Herman Poon
Director
U.S. Structured Finance
+1 212 908-0847
33 Whitehall Street
New York, NY
or
Stephanie Lobaccaro
Associate Analyst
U.S. Structured Finance
+1 212 908-0769
or
Rob Rowan
Senior Director
Fitch Wire
+1 212 908-9159
or
Media Relations:
Sandro Scenga, +1-212-908-0278
sandro.scenga@fitchratings.com