NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--U.S. credit card ABS metrics will remain in record territory near term despite the potential for interest rate rises as early as September, Fitch Ratings says.
We expect our prime indices to remain at record levels this month. Both chargeoffs and delinquency rates are expected to be steady, with slight improvement in chargeoffs for the month. The monthly payment rate (MPR), a measure of how quickly cardholders pay back their balances, is expected to rise, while gross yield is anticipated to drop.
Retail metrics for the most part will also remain strong, with a decline in chargeoffs. Retail 60+ day delinquencies will likely remain near their previous record lows, and MPRs are expected to remain virtually unchanged.
This preliminary data reflect the July reporting period (as of July 31, 2015) and August distribution date. Actual results will be available in early September.
The strength of the performance metrics and the continuing recovery of the job market indicate that any reasonable interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve is unlikely to have any impact on credit card ABS. MPRs are more susceptible to interest rate movement as the percentage of consumers making smaller credit card payments may increase. However, we would expect the impact on delinquencies and chargeoffs to be less immediate and consumers to divert a greater proportion of their disposable income to service higher payments on other debts.
A steep increase in interest rates is highly unlikely, and therefore, we expect credit card ABS metrics to remain stable in the near term.
Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com.
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