NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings expects to assign the following ratings to Porsche Innovative Lease Owner Trust 2014-1:
--$128,000,000 class A-1 asset-backed notes 'F1+sf';
--$295,000,000 class A-2 asset-backed notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$342,000,000 class A-3 asset-backed notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$85,000,000 class A-4 asset-backed notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Strong Collateral Quality: PILOT 2014-1 has a WA FICO of 790 and is composed of primarily 36-month leases. The pool is well seasoned and has a well-diversified residual value (RV) maturity schedule.
Shifting Portfolio Composition: 2014-1 is the first PILOT transaction to include leases for Bentley and Lamborghini vehicles, which comprise 10% of the pool. The pool also includes approximately 20% Panamera models, down from nearly 30% in 2013-1. Limited residual realization data are available for this portion of the portfolio. Accordingly, Fitch used proxy data in deriving a residual loss assumption.
High Average Vehicle Cost: Industry-level data suggest a notable correlation between vehicle price and residual loss levels in previous downturns. The 2014-1 pool contains a substantial percentage of leases to high-end vehicles such as the 911 Turbo, Bentley and Lamborghini, which could be more exposed to residual volatility in an economic downturn.
Sufficient Credit Enhancement Structure: Loss coverage provided in the 2014-1 structure is sufficient to support a 5x multiple of Fitch's base case credit loss expectation of 0.85% and 'AAAsf' stressed RV loss assumption of 31.05%.
Low Historical Loss Levels: Credit losses on PFS' portfolio have been low for the past several years. Residual losses on PFS' portfolio throughout the 2008-2009 industry downturn were lower than those of other luxury lease originators, with recent performance showing residual gains.
Evolving Wholesale Market: The U.S. wholesale vehicle market has been normalizing following strong performance in recent years. Fitch expects that increasing off-lease vehicle supply and pressure from increased production levels will lead to decreased residual realizations during the life of the transaction.
Stable Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: Fitch believes PFS demonstrates adequate abilities as originator, underwriter, and servicer to service the 2014-1 pool.
Unanticipated decreases in the value of returned vehicles and/or increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case and could result in potential rating actions on the notes. Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to Porsche Innovative Lease Owner Trust 2014-1 to increased credit and residual losses over the life of the transaction.
Fitch's analysis found that the transaction displays relatively little sensitivity to increased defaults and credit losses, showing downgrades between two and less than one rating category even under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss). The transaction shows more sensitivity to residual loss volatility, although even under Fitch's severe scenario, the class A notes would be expected to retain an investment-grade rating.
Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the presale report dated Sept. 5, 2014. Fitch's analysis of the Representations and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in Porsche Innovative Lease Owner Trust 2014-1 -- Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in the special report 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' dated April 17, 2012.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Criteria for Rating U.S. Auto Lease ABS' (April 24, 2014);
--'Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria' (August 4, 2014);
--'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' (April 17, 2012);
--'Porsche Innovative Lease Owner Trust 2014-1 -- Appendix' (Sept. 11, 2014).
Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Porsche Innovative Lease Owner Trust 2014-1 (US ABS)
Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions
Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria
Criteria for Rating U.S. Auto Lease ABS