LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A new long-term projection model from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the world’s leading independent expert on renewable energy and carbon markets, shows that annual global expenditure on renewable energy projects will increase from $90 billion (USD) in 2009 to $150 billion in 2020. The model shows that this will further increase to $200 billion by 2030 given current policy targets.
The new findings apply the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Global Energy and Emissions Model GE2M, which is a long-term projection model covering the entire world energy system. The new model is able to forecast investments levels, technologies and policy options required to meet energy and emissions goals.
The Bloomberg New Energy Finance model projects that by 2020 renewable energy will make up 22% of the world’s installed power generation base, up from 13% today, and that it will constitute 31% of power by 2030.
According to the Bloomberg New Energy Finance model, these figures must increase significantly in order to avert the worst effects of climate change and achieve an average of 2tCO2 (tons of carbon dioxide) per head by 2050. Bloomberg New Energy Finance finds that expenditure on renewable energy assets needs to increase to $230 billion by 2020 and $500 billion by 2030 to meet this goal. This will mean that renewable energy expands to cover just over 40% of installed power generation capacity and contributes 45% to the additional 19Gt (gross tons) of emission reductions needed by 2030.
The Bloomberg New Energy Finance model predicts that the increase in annual global expenditure on renewable energy capacity will come largely from onshore wind. According to the model, significant expansion will also occur in solar PV and offshore wind. The group foresees that biomass technologies will continue to play an important role, particularly in the transport sector while hydropower will experience limited growth.
Important emission reductions will also come from forestry and agriculture and improved industrial energy efficiency. Energy efficiency in buildings will play a critical role, says Bloomberg New Energy Finance, but these are expected to occur as a matter of course because in many cases the measures are already cost effective. According to the Bloomberg New Energy Finance model, achievement of these more ambitious goals to reduce global emissions can be obtained by progressively increasing a cost of carbon around the world to $100 per ton by 2030.
These are some of the results of the latest analysis from the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Global Energy and Emissions Model GE2M.
GE2M replaces and extends Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s existing regional carbon price forecasting models and the Global Futures model. The model covers more than 200 countries and regions of the world, projecting a wide range of economic, demographic, technical and policy factors that define future emissions, investment levels and commodity prices.
As well as unique programming that simulates investment behavior across all sectors of the economy, the model contains large quantities of data drawn from hundreds of data sources around the world.
Guy Turner, director of Carbon Market Research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said, “These findings confirm that in spite of the ongoing economic malaise, investment in renewable energy should continue to grow, driven heavily by existing government targets. And if governments take the threat of climate seriously, there will be an increasing role for renewable energy up to 2030.”
Joel Lindop, head of GE2M Modeling at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, commented “With more than two years of development and several more years’ data collection, GE2M provides a unique ability to see how different aspects of the world energy system interact and what this means for both policy and investment.”
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