Forrester: No Future For Paid Video Downloads
CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The paid video download market is a dead end, according to a new report by Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR). Forrester estimates that paid video downloads will peak in 2007, generating $279 million in revenue, up from $98 million last year. Instead, advertising models will drive the online video market.
“The paid video download market in its current evolutionary state will soon become extinct, despite the fast growth and the millions being spent today”
In the past year, companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Wal-Mart have begun offering consumers the ability to download television programs and movies to own or rent. But a recent Forrester survey showed that only nine percent of online adults have ever paid to download a movie or TV show. Furthermore, an analysis of these consumers showed they are a niche of media junkies willing to spend heavily on such content; they do not represent the vanguard of a rush by mainstream consumers. Without mainstream viewers joining the party, the video download market will not grow fast enough to support the ambitions of all the companies involved.
“The paid video download market in its current evolutionary state will soon become extinct, despite the fast growth and the millions being spent today,” said Forrester Research Principal Analyst James McQuivey. “Television and cable networks will shift the bulk of paid downloading to ad-supported streams where they have control of ads and effective audience measurement. The movie studios, whose content only makes up a fraction of today’s paid downloads, will put their weight behind subscription models that imitate premium cable channel services.”
Other implications of such a market shift include:
“To attract mainstream viewers, media strategy executives must develop new business models and delivery mechanisms to make video downloading ad-supported and geek-free,” says McQuivey.
The report “Paid Video Downloads Give Way To Ad Models” includes recommendations for media executives and is currently available to Forrester RoleView™ clients. It can also be purchased directly at www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,42291,00.html
About Forrester Research
Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR) is an independent technology and market research company that provides pragmatic and forward-thinking advice to global leaders in business and technology. For more than 23 years, Forrester has been making leaders successful every day through its proprietary research, consulting, events, and peer-to-peer executive programs.
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