Overview of Bay State Poll Results From the Center for Public Opinion Research at Merrimack College: With Mihos in the Race, Healey Trails Democrats
Governor's Race
In a potential three way match-up of gubernatorial candidates, Bay State Poll respondents favored Democrat Tom Reilly (39.2%) over Republican Kerry Healey (21.2%) and Independent Christy Mihos (14.6%), with 25% undecided.
In the other potential three way match-up, Democrat Deval Patrick garnered 32% support leading Healey (28%) and Mihos (13%), with 27% undecided.
Democratic Primary
Registered Democrats and Independents likely to vote in the Democratic primary this fall preferred Reilly over Patrick 37.5% to 21.8% with 40.7% still undecided.
Gay Marriage
58% of Massachusetts residents favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, with 32% opposed and 9% undecided.
State's Top Priority
Healthcare and health insurance were named as the top priority of nearly a quarter (23.1%) of the state's residents. Education was named by the second highest percentage of respondents (15.2%) with jobs and the economy third (12.9%).
These findings come from the Bay State Poll, a survey of Massachusetts's residents, conducted by the Center for Public Opinion Research at Merrimack College. Eight Hundred Eighty One (881) randomly selected state residents over the age of eighteen were interviewed by telephone February 25-March 8, 2006. The survey's margin of error is +/- 3.5%, although for sub-samples the margin for error is higher as noted. Detailed results and methodological information are available at www.merrimack.edu/polling.
The Governor's Race What if the candidates for governor What if the candidates for were Republican Kerry Healey, governor were Republican Kerry Democrat Tom Reilly, and Healey, Democrat Deval Patrick, Independent Christy Mihos for who and Independent Christy Mihos would you vote? for who you vote? ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Healey 21.2% Healey 28.0% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Reilly 39.2% Patrick 32.0% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Mihos 14.6% Mihos 13.0% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Undecided 25.0% Undecided 27.0% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Sample of 320 registered voters likely to vote in the general election, with a margin of error of +/-5.6% Democratic Primary If the Democratic primary for Massachusetts Governor was held today and the candidates were Tom Reilly and Deval Patrick, for whom would you vote? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Tom Reilly 37.5% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Deval Patrick 21.8% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Undecided 40.7% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Sample of 438 registered Democrats and Independents likely to vote in the Democratic Primary, with a margin of error of +/-4.8% Gay Marriage Would you say you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Strongly Favor 19.8% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Favor 38.2% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Oppose 17.8% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Strongly Oppose 13.9% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Don't Know 9.3% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Top Priority for Massachusetts Now I am going to read you a list of some issues facing Massachusetts. Please tell me which of these items you think should be the top priority for the state government. ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Healthcare/Health Insurance 23.1% Energy Costs 3.8% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Education 15.2% The Environment 3.7% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Jobs and the Economy 12.9% Government Corruption 3.7% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Homelessness/Hunger/Poverty 9.0% Moral Values 3.6% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Taxes 6.6% The Business Climate 2.3% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- The Cost of Housing/Living 6.4% Roads and Transportation 2.1% ------------------------------------ --------------------------------- Crime/Drugs/Violence 5.6% Some Other Issue 1.9% ------------------------------------ ---------------------------------
What If It Had Been A Two-Way Race?
Because the Bay State Poll was already in progress when Christy Mihos announced his intention to run as an Independent on March 2nd 2006, those respondents interviewed prior to that date were asked about their vote preferences in both a potential Republican gubernatorial primary between Kerry Healey and Chisty Mihos, and potential match-ups between Healey and Mihos and the Democratic contenders Reilly and Patrick. These results are presented in this section to illustrate how Mihos's entry into the race as an Independent may have affect the gubernatorial race.
If the Republican primary for Massachusetts Governor were held today and the candidates were Kerry Healey and Christy Mihos, for whom would you vote? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Kerry Healey 55.4% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Christy Mihos 14.2% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Undecided 30.5% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Sample of 106 registered Republicans and Independents likely to vote in the Republican Primary, with a margin of error of +/-10% What if the candidates for governor were . . . for whom would you vote? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Match-Up #1 Match-Up#2 Match-Up #3 Match-Up #4 ------------------ ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- Healey 33.6% Healey 39.4% Mihos 24.7% Mihos 22.4% ------------------ ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- Reilly 42.5% Patrick 34.5% Reilly 43.6% Patrick 37.5% ------------------ ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- Undecided 23.8% Undecided 26.1% Undecided 31.7% Undecided 40.1% ------------------ ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- Sample of 440 registered voters likely to vote in the general election, with a margin of error of +/-4.8%
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