Research and Markets: Celebrex Will Remain the Market Leading Brand for Osteoarthritis Treatment until Patent Expiry in 2014, When More Than 70% First Year Generic Erosion Is Forecast

DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0d0629/forecast_insight) has announced the addition of the "Forecast Insight: Osteoarthritis" report to their offering.

Introduction

With several recent non-approvable decisions in the osteoarthritis market since 2006, We have updated its forecast to account for the effect on the market. We have revised the market outlook over the next 10 years using the latest IMS data. We expect the market to grow steadily, with a CAGR from 2007 to 2017 of 3.2%, to reach sales of nearly $5.5 billion in 2017.

Scope

This report gives a strategic analysis of the likely impact that recent events will have on the osteoarthritis market Includes osteoarthritis-specific and total brand sales forecasts for the key brands in the seven major markets to 2017 This report provides a global market snapshot by including osteoarthritis-specific sales analysis for leading brands outside the seven major markets. This report includes updated forecasts of nearly 130 currently marketed products and reassesses pipeline product launch dates and sales forecasts

Highlights

After three years of decline, market sales grew by 0.8% (2006-07) to reach $4 billion in the 7MM in 2007. Driving growth was an increase in sales of COX-2, non-narcotic analgesic and corticosteroid classes. Market sales will reach $5.5 billion by 2017 (3.2% CAGR) boosted by pipeline product launches, particularly NicOxs naproxcinod. Lessened side effect concern and clever marketing contributed to the rebound in Celebrex sales. Also contributing to Celebrexs reprise was the Japanese launch in June 2007. Celebrex will remain the market leading brand for osteoarthritis treatment until patent expiry in 2014, when more than 70% first year generic erosion is forecast. Arcoxia (etoricoxib) and Prexige (lumiracoxib) will not launch in the US as previously predicted. The COX-2 pipeline has collapsed with little sign of future promise. This counters the rise in Celebrex and Arcoxia sales, which show that opportunities exist, but at present regulatory requirement generates a large barrier to entry.

Reasons to Purchase

Quantify the current size of the seven major markets and the trends in the rest of the world Understand when late-stage pipeline products will launch and what impact this will have on the market during the forecast period 2007 to 2017 Assess the impact of events, such as patent expiries, on the osteoarthritis-specific sales of key brand name products.

Key Topics Covered:

ABOUT US HEALTHCARE 2

About the Immunology and Inflammation (I&I) pharmaceutical analysis team 2

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

Datamonitor insight into the osteoarthritis market 3

Related reports 4

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 6

Market definition for this report 6

Current seven major market assessment 9

The osteoarthritis market totaled nearly $4 billion in 2007 9

After three years of decline, osteoarthritis sales increased 0.8% from 2006 to 2007 10

US remained the largest osteoarthritis market in 2007, despite the sharpest decline in sales compared to other major markets 12

Rest of world snapshot 13

Key brand comparison between the 7MM and rest of the world 13

Expensive brands show strong sales in Canada, Australia and the EU, but Brazil and Mexico offer growth opportunity 14

Future seven major market assessment 16

Comparison with previous forecast 16

The major change occurs in the COX-2 class 16

Osteoarthritis market will grow to reach sales of $5.5 billion in 2017 17

Osteoarthritis accounts for 15% on average of total branded values 20

Forecast data tables 21

CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS 26

Overview of competitive landscape 26

Pfizers Celebrex was the leading drug for osteoarthritis in 2007 26

COX-2 28

Celebrex (celecoxib) 28

Celebrexs 7MM sales rise in the near-term but decline beginning in 2011 as pipeline agents followed by generic celecoxib enter the market 28

Patent covering Celebrex in the US enforceable until 2014 31

Generic versions of Celebrex will not be available until 2019 in Japan 32

Arcoxia (etoricoxib) 32

Arcoxia performed well in the EU markets from 2004 to 2007 32

Non-approvable in the US 34

EU patent covering Arcoxia expires in 2017 35

Prexige (lumiracoxib) 35

Prexiges marketing authorization withdrawn in multiple regions 36

Non-approvable in the US 36

Prexige will not be launched in Japan 36

GW-406381 37

GlaxoSmithKlines GW-406381 removed from Datamonitors forecast 37

LAS-34475 37

Almiralls LAS-34475 removed from Datamonitors forecast 37

Traditional NSAIDs 38

Mobic (meloxicam) 38

Impact of Mobic patent expiry in the US and five major EU markets 38

Generic meloxicam yet to enter Japan 40

Naproxcinod 41

Phase III program will conclude by the end of 2008 41

Datamonitor has pushed back Naproxcinods launch date in the US and EU to Q3 2010 43

Datamonitor has upgraded its forecast for naproxcinod 44

Diractin (IDEA-033) 46

Updated launch date in the EU for 2008 46

Diractin outlicensed to Alpharma and US launch updated for 2011 46

Potential for Diractin in Japan 48

Licofelone 48

Licofelone pulled from Datamonitors forecast 48

PN-400 (naproxen + esomeprazole) 49

PN-400 added to forecast update 49

Non-narcotic analgesics 51

Zucapsaicin 51

Zucapsaicin was removed from the forecast update 51

Narcotic analgesics 52

Fentora (fentanyl) 52

FDA advisory panel votes against use of Fentora in non-cancer breakthrough pain 52

Corticosteroids 53

CRx-102 (prednisolone + dipyridamole) 53

Long-term safety concerns an issue with CRx-102 53

Hyaluronic acids 54

Synvisc (Hylan GF-20) 54

Filed in Japan and launch expected in 2009 54

Synvisc-One (Hylan GF-20) 54

Single injection Synvisc-One granted EU approval 54

US approval of Synvisc-One expected late in 2008 56

BIBLIOGRAPHY 57

References 57

Websites 57

Datamonitor reports 59

APPENDIX 60

Contributing experts 60

Methodology 61

Indication split calculations 61

Assumptions and caveats for diagnosis value estimates 62

Generic erosion and pricing assumptions 63

About Datamonitor 63

About Datamonitor Healthcare 64

Datamonitor Healthcares research and analysis methodologies 65

Datamonitor Healthcares therapy area capabilities 65

Disclaimer 67

List of Tables

List of Figures

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0d0629/forecast_insight.

Source: Datamonitor