UANI Geneva Interim Agreement Analysis: Five Months
Iran is Enjoying Substantial Sanctions Relief, While Holding to Uncompromising Position on Industrial-Scale Enrichment Program in Negotiations with P5+1
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) released its updated analysis of the Geneva Interim Agreement after the conclusion of the latest round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1. The agreement is set to expire on July 20.
“abandon excessive demands which will not be accepted by Iran.”
Iran has clearly communicated that it is not prepared to make the concessions necessary to reach a compromise with the P5+1 on its nuclear program. In particular, the regime is seeking to expand its already industrial-scale uranium enrichment program to include tens of thousands more centrifuges, far more than what the international community will allow.
IRAN NOT COMPROMISING TO REACH FINAL NUCLEAR ACCORD
In recent weeks, Iran has further clarified that it is not prepared to make the necessary compromises to reach a final accord. Little headway was made in the fifth round of nuclear talks as Iran would not countenance foregoing an industrial-scale enrichment program, which would enable the regime to maintain a “breakout” capacity to build a nuclear weapon in a matter of months, if not weeks. According to diplomats, Tehran wants to ultimately expand its current number of 20,000 centrifuges to 150,000. The U.S. is seeking to limit the number to a few hundred centrifuges. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned that the P5+1 must “abandon excessive demands which will not be accepted by Iran.”
SANCTIONS RELIEF BY THE NUMBERS
Regarding the total estimated value of the sanctions relief provided for in the agreement, the White House estimates that Iran stands to receive no more than $6 billion to $7 billion. The true value of the sanctions relief, however, could be more accurately valued at greater than $20 billion, when accounting for Iran’s broader macroeconomic improvement and increased oil export revenue as the sanctions pressure has receded.
Billions in Oil Export Revenue
[Click here to view a graph showing Iran's oil exports and supplemental oil revenue received since the Geneva agreement was reached.]
According to the interim agreement, Iran’s oil exports were to be limited to one million barrels per day. This has not been the case, since Iran has surpassed the one million barrel limit in every month since the signing of the accord. As a result, Iran has earned approximately $5 billion in additional sanctions relief via these above-limit oil exports up to and including April 2014.
Improving Economic Indicators
|↑ 14%||Increase in the value of the Iranian rial since Rouhani's election.|
|↑ 59%||Increase in the value of the Tehran Stock Exchange index since Rouhani's election.|
Reduction in inflation, "
PACE OF U.S. SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT HAS SLOWED
The Obama administration has pledged to fully enforce all existing sanctions against Iran. Evidence indicates, however, that since Rouhani’s election, the U.S. has been far less aggressive in enforcing sanctions. In 2013, before Rouhani’s June 14 election – a period of approximately 6.5 months – Treasury designated 183 entities for violating Iran sanctions. In the more than 12 months since Rouhani’s election, only 61 entities have been blacklisted.
HUMAN RIGHTS UNDER ROUHANI
Since Rouhani took office, the human rights situation has not improved as some had hoped, but has actually worsened in a number of critical ways. For example, the pace of executions has increased to more than two a day in what can only be described as an "execution binge."
Rouhani has also not fulfilled his promise to ease Internet restrictions, with Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube remaining blocked for Iranian citizens. In May, six young men and women were arrested and detained in Tehran for posting a tribute video to Pharrell Williams' hit song, "Happy," on YouTube.