OLDWICK, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In this A.M.BestTV episode, Kurt Karl, chief economist and head of economic research & consulting at Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd., said protectionism and shifting political fortunes increase the likelihood of change in individual markets, making it harder for insurers to accurately budget and invest. Click on http://www.ambest.com/v.asp?v=karl517 to view the entire program.
“This year and next, the U.S. GDP real growth is and will be 2.2%,” said Karl. “Not the 3% that we would all love to have, but better than last year’s growth, which was only 1.6%. This growth, with a 4.5% unemployment rate, and a little bit of an uptick in inflation and wages, should get us a few rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.”
Looking at Europe and Asia, Karl said he is concerned about the U.K.’s exit from the European Union; upcoming elections in the region; China’s doubling its rate of growth of nominal GDP in debt and trade protectionism.
“If we get a lot of trade protection or a trade war it would decrease global growth enormously, so we are watching this very carefully,” he said.
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