NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) has released a macro-market research report on Qatar’s diplomatic crisis entitled, “Tidal Waves in the Gulf.” The report notes that dissatisfaction with Qatar’s policies and behavior are not new, but the recent diplomatic crisis includes far-reaching initiatives to isolate Qatar. KBRA’s baseline expectation is that the conflict will be diffused by the end of the summer, and Qatar will pledge to reduce its support of terrorism, caving into demands of the opposing countries.
The key points made in the report are:
- Qatar likes to “dance at everyone’s wedding”—it is home to the U.S.’s most important military and intelligence base in the region yet also the admitted supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas—but that doesn’t work in a region marred by political instability, exacerbated by the Arab Spring and rise of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
- The alliance against Qatar, and particularly Saudi Arabia, is opportunistically using its tight relationship with the U.S. to punish the country for its support of the alliance’s enemies; it also helps isolate Iran.
- KBRA’s baseline scenario is that Qatar will soften to the alliance’s demands and relax its support of terrorist groups, paving the way for the crisis to cool down. We will monitor the situation closely to assess the impact on Qatar and whether our expectations materialize.
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About Kroll Bond Rating Agency
KBRA is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO). In addition, KBRA is recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) as a Credit Rating Provider (CRP).