DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/7p92mk/q2_mena_outlook) has announced the addition of the "Q2 MENA Outlook 2014 - Iran-Arab Relations: Resuming age-old neighborly ties?" report to their offering.
Iran is expected to emerge from recession in 2014, but reversing the negative consequences of the former government's populist policies will take time. Renewed political support for the Vision 2025 and competent economic management could bring Iran back on the right track, medium-term.
The continued stand-off over Crimea could also imply less cohesion within the P5 in their negotiations with Iran. In extremis, this could lead to Russia's disinvolvement'. While Iran is keen on Russia's counterbalancing influence in the P5, it would not be willing to jeopardize talks if Russia became a hindrance.
As such, while we do not expect a breakthrough this quarter, an extension until January 2015 would allow the Iranian government to benefit from the partial easing of sanctions for most of the 2014/2015 fiscal year (March to March). The implications for oil prices will be minimal in our baseline scenario. We factor in a modest improvement for Iranian oil production in the coming 12-18 months, but expect no material impact on oil prices, ceterus paribus.
Key Topics Covered:
- Our View: Tectonic shifts in MENA's balance of power
- Global Outlook - China: Turbulence ahead for commodity exporters
- MENA Region - Iran: Relations at an inflection point with MENA & the West
- MENA Credit Monitor: Macro Themes - Sovereign Credit
- MENA Credit Strategy: Outright CDS & Bond analysis
- MENA FX & Local Markets Monitor: Macro Themes - Sovereign FX
- Arabia Credit Monitor: 5-yr CDS vs. Credit Ratings
- MENA Credit Markets: CDS Spread Analysis
- MENA FX Markets: FX Levels Analysis
- MENA Credit Analysis: Arabia Credit CDS Monitor
- MENA FX Analysis: Arabia FX Monitor
- MENA Local Markets Analysis: Arabia Local Markets Monitor
- Arabia Credit Monitor: Credit ratings
- MENA Macro Dashboard
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/7p92mk/q2_mena_outlook