Rebounding from the Winter Doldrums

Semiannual Economic Outlook

CHICAGO--()--In the May issue of Themes on the Economy®, Mesirow Financial’s Chief Economist says that just as expected, “Harsh winter weather deferred and displaced, but did not destroy, economic activity in the aggregate.” Instead, “we shifted activity from the first to the second quarter and from the Midwest and East to the South and West,” as consumers have been migrating to warm weather and ski resorts, spending money at restaurants far from home.

Diane Swonk adds that, “Business investment is expected to reaccelerate... Recent orders data suggest that businesses are finally shifting from repairing to replacing their equipment.” As for another key driver of spending, “Tight inventories in both the existing and new housing markets are expected to continue to put upward pressure on home values and trigger an uptick in housing construction.”

Consumers and businesses will both be watching the Federal Reserve, looking for hints of when interest rates may be moving higher. The forecast from Mesirow Financial’s economic team indicates that, “In mid-2015, the Fed is expected to start raising rates, albeit slowly... Short-term rates are likely to remain well below the 4% ‘norm’ well into 2016.”

For more on what to expect from the U.S. economy later this year and next, read Themes on the Economy for May. Archived issues can be found at mesirowfinancial.com.

Mesirow Financial is a diversified financial services firm headquartered in Chicago. Founded in 1937, it is an independent, employee-owned firm with approximately 1,200 employees globally. With expertise in Investment Management, Global Markets, Insurance Services and Consulting, Mesirow Financial strives to meet the financial needs of institutions, public sector entities, corporations and individuals. For more information about Mesirow Financial, visit its website at mesirowfinancial.com.

Contacts

Mesirow Financial
Karen Nye, 312.595.7147

Release Summary

Mesirow Financial’s Chief Economist Diane Swonk predicts business investment will reaccelerate and that in turn, the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in mid-2015, but very slowly.

Sharing

Contacts

Mesirow Financial
Karen Nye, 312.595.7147