Fitch Rates $295MM Wisconsin GO Bonds 'AA'; Outlook Stable

NEW YORK--()--Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'AA' rating to the following general obligation (GO) bonds of the state of Wisconsin:

--$294.82 million GO refunding bonds of 2014, series 2.

The bonds will be sold via negotiated sale on or after March 12, 2014.

In addition, Fitch has affirmed the following ratings of the state:

--$7.1 billion in GO bonds, at 'AA';

--$695.3 million in GO extendible municipal commercial paper (EMCP) notes, at 'F1+'.

The Rating Outlook on the long-term ratings is Stable. The EMCP rating does not carry an Outlook.

SECURITY

The state's full faith, credit, and taxing powers, as well as the statutory irrevocable appropriation of a first lien on all state revenues for debt service, secure the GO bonds.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

BROAD, DIVERSE ECONOMY: The Wisconsin economy is broad and diverse with considerable economic resources, albeit with an above-average manufacturing presence.

FISCAL PROGRESS UNDERWAY: The state's finances have strengthened, with recent structural budget solutions and solid revenue gains resulting in materially stronger liquidity. The state has not yet returned to consistent structural balance as of its fiscal 2013-2015 adopted budget although year-to-date revenue performance is strong.

LIMITED RESERVES: The state's reserves, which were depleted in the last downturn, have begun growing again but remain modest. If the revised revenue performance is realized and not offset by change in tax policy, the reserve position is forecast to improve over the course of the biennium.

MODERATE LIABILITIES: State tax-supported debt is a moderate though above-average burden on resources. Retiree obligations are minimal, with pensions fully funded and limited other post-employment obligations.

NOTES CARRY GO PLEDGE: EMCP notes are general obligations of the state; outstanding notes have never been extended. Resolutions authorizing long-term bond issuance to fund the notes have been executed.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

CONTINUED FISCAL IMPROVEMENT: A demonstrated commitment to growing reserve funding and consistently achieving structurally sound budgets in the context of moderate debt and low retiree obligations could result in a rating upgrade.

CREDIT PROFILE

Wisconsin's 'AA' long-term GO bond rating and Stable Outlook recognize its considerable resources, a diverse economy with an above-average manufacturing presence, a moderate but above-average debt burden and fully funded pensions. In Fitch's view, the state's fiscal management has improved in recent years, with extensive structural budget actions in the fiscal 2011-2013 biennium, revenue over-performance allowing sizable deposits to the budget stabilization fund (BSF), and stronger liquidity.

The adopted budget for the fiscal 2013-2015 biennium (which began on July 1, 2013) relied on substantial use of the fiscal 2013 ending balance to achieve budgetary balance in fiscal 2014 and 2015. An upward revenue revision in January 2014, which reflected strong revenue performance year-to-date and slightly higher economic growth, would produce a surplus for fiscal 2014 and 2015 without use of ending balance, assuming changes in tax policy do not offset the revenue gains.

FINANCES

In past biennia the state's practice was to rely on nonrecurring items and fund shifts in times of revenue weakness to achieve budgetary balance. The adopted budget for the fiscal 2011-2013 biennium (which ended on June 30, 2013) marked a notable departure from the past, with deep structural cuts, including to employee benefits and local aid, to achieve balance. With the exception of debt refunding for budget relief in fiscal 2012, the budget avoided a reliance on nonrecurring resources and repaid longstanding budgetary obligations. Budget performance in fiscal 2013 was considerably stronger than anticipated, reflecting better than expected tax receipts.

The BSF, which had been minimally funded for much of the last decade, benefitted from general fund revenue over-performance during the biennium, with a deposit of $108.9 million from fiscal 2012 and approximately $154 million from fiscal 2013, which brought its balance to $279.3 million (about 2% of fiscal 2013 general-fund tax receipts). Wisconsin statute requires that half of revenues in excess of the adopted forecast be transferred to the BSF. If revenue continues to perform as currently anticipated, and without consideration of a tax cut proposed by the governor, the state would be required to deposit an additional $443 million to the BSF by the end of the current biennium. The excess would be significantly reduced under the proposed legislation. In its consideration of this legislation, the legislature has proposed suspending transfers to the BSF for fiscal 2014 and 2015, leaving any balance to be retained in the general fund.

The adopted budget for fiscal 2013-2015 incorporated sizable personal income tax (PIT) rate cuts taking effect in tax year 2013. PIT tax rate changes were estimated to reduce general fund revenues from baseline levels by $328 million in fiscal 2014 and $320 million in fiscal 2015. The state's outlook for tax revenue collections during the fiscal 2013-2015 biennium appears reasonable, particularly given recent upward revisions in estimated fiscal 2013 performance. As of the January 2014 revised forecast, fiscal 2014 general fund tax revenues are now expected to show modest 2.2% year-over-year growth to $14.4 billion, followed by strong 4.3% growth in fiscal 2015, to $15.5 billion.

Under the adopted fiscal 2013-2015 budget, general fund net appropriations rise 3.6% in fiscal 2014, to $14.8 billion, and 3.8% in fiscal 2015, to $15.4 billion. The spending plan included changes to state Medicaid eligibility in response to federal health reform, higher school formula funding and flat aid to local governments.

With the revised revenue forecast, the ending net balance is projected to increase from $694.2 million at June 30, 2013, to $831.8 million in fiscal 2014 and $976.5 million in fiscal 2015, despite absorbing the PIT rate change and higher spending needs. The forecast ending balance is almost $900 million higher than anticipated when the budget was enacted. The governor is proposing several tax law changes, the largest of which would provide property tax relief in support of the Technical College System. The governor has also directed the department of revenue to adjust income tax withholding tables to reflect lower tax rates, which will cause a one-time loss of state revenues due to differences in timing between the state's fiscal and tax years. If enacted, these changes would significantly reduce the projected surplus and suspend deposits to the BSF. Fitch will assess the impact of any additional changes in tax policy in the context of the state's ability to achieve structural budget balance and maintain sufficient reserves.

ECONOMY

Wisconsin benefits from a diverse economy, although its large manufacturing sector has been a source of vulnerability. The state's recovery from the recession has been slow and uneven. After performance in line with that of the U.S. during the downturn, 2012 employment growth was about half the U.S. pace. Employment growth, which continued to lag the U.S. through much of 2013, has improved in recent months with December 2013 employment up 1.6%, matching the U.S. overall.

Unemployment, at 6.2% in December 2013, remains below the 6.7% national rate. Wisconsin ranked 26th in personal income per capita in 2012, at 95% of the U.S. average. The state forecasts slow employment and personal income gains through 2015, its forecast period, which Fitch believes to be reasonable.

DEBT AND OTHER LIABILITIES

Net tax-supported debt of approximately $13.3 billion as of Dec. 15, 2013 measures 5.5% of 2012 personal income, a moderate but above-average level. Debt has grown in recent years, including $1.5 billion in general fund annual appropriation bonds issued in early 2009 to provide budget relief by purchasing tobacco settlement revenues previously sold to the Badger Tobacco Asset Securitization Corporation. A further $1.8 billion in general fund annual appropriation bonds were issued in 2003 for pension funding. More than half of tax-supported debt is GO, with the remainder consisting of various revenue and appropriation credits. The state's improving cash balances made it unnecessary to utilize cash flow borrowing during fiscal 2013, and none is expected through the fiscal 2013-2015 biennium.

The state's limited retiree obligations are a credit strength. Pensions were fully funded as of Dec. 31, 2012, the valuation date in the statewide system's most recent comprehensive annual financial report. On a combined basis, the state's net tax-supported debt and pension obligations measure 5.5% of personal income, below the median for U.S. states rated by Fitch. OPEB obligations are limited.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'

In addition to the sources of information identified in the Tax-Supported Rating Criteria, this action was additionally informed by information from IHS Global Insight.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

--'Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012);

--'U.S. State Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 14, 2012).

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

Tax-Supported Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=686015

U.S. State Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=686033

Additional Disclosure

Solicitation Status

http://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=823348

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Karen Krop, +1-212-908-0661
Senior Director
One State Street Plaza
New York, NY 10004
or
Secondary Analyst
Douglas Offerman, +1-212-908-0889
Senior Director
or
Committee Chairperson
Laura Porter, +1-212-908-0575
Managing Director
or
Media Relations
Elizabeth Fogerty, +1-212-908-0526 (New York)
elizabeth.fogerty@fitchratings.com

Sharing

Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst
Karen Krop, +1-212-908-0661
Senior Director
One State Street Plaza
New York, NY 10004
or
Secondary Analyst
Douglas Offerman, +1-212-908-0889
Senior Director
or
Committee Chairperson
Laura Porter, +1-212-908-0575
Managing Director
or
Media Relations
Elizabeth Fogerty, +1-212-908-0526 (New York)
elizabeth.fogerty@fitchratings.com