Global pay slowdown hits in 2014, say Hay Group

  • Salary rises down on last year as real pay in many markets feel the squeeze
  • Fast growing economies still set to experience significant wage rises, while developed countries lag behind

PHILADELPHIA--()--Salary rises across the world are in decline, according to the latest pay forecast data from global management consultancy, Hay Group.

Salaries are set to increase by 5.2% on average but rises for 2014 are expected to average 0.3% less than last year’s forecasts (5.5%).

Venezuelan workers look set to receive the biggest pay increase of 27%. Yet, with inflation predicted to reach 36.4% in 2014, employees will actually feel a significant cut in real income.

Salary rises in Europe are forecast at 3.1% on average, boosted by high rises in emerging nations. This compares to 3.3% in 2013.

North America is set to see rises of 2.7% in 2014 compared to 2.9% last year.

In the Middle East pay rises have stabilized but forecasts are down on 2013. The average rise forecast is 5% – down 0.5% on last year.

Hay Group’s research is based on the salary expectations of more than 22,000 organizations in 71 countries worldwide, representing 15 million employees.

Iain Fitzpatrick, Vice President for Pay at Hay Group, comments: “Expectations for GDP growth were not met in 2013, which has in turn tempered the forecast for growth in salaries for 2014 even as the outlook for GDP growth is optimistic. Companies are tending to be more conservative than a year ago.

“Even where optimistic rises are expected in fast growing markets, high inflation means the economic recovery won’t be felt in the pay packets of employees in many countries.”

Two-speed trend persists

Hay Group’s research reveals that fast-growth markets will see the biggest salary rises in the New Year. However, high inflation means real income will fall in many countries.

Venezuela and Argentina look set to offer the highest predicted pay rises – 27% and 24.3% – but these will lag significantly behind projected 2014 inflation rates – 36.4% and 25.7% respectively1. As a result, employees will feel a significant cut in real income.

Pay rises across the rest of Latin America remain high compared with other regions but are generally down on last year. The only exceptions to this rule are Peru – where wage rises are up 0.4% to 6.4% – and Brazil up 0.6% to 6.1%.

Salaries in Asia are expected to increase by an average 7% – 0.2% less than the rise in 2013, reflecting slowing but still strong economic forecasts. The highest increases will be seen in Vietnam (11.5%), India (10.9%), Indonesia (10%) and China (8.6%).

Europe’s emerging nations can also expect noticeable increases in pay rises compared to their slow-growth neighbours. Ukraine (7.9%), Russia (7.8%) and Turkey (7.7%) will experience the greatest up-tick in wages but are again down on last year’s forecasts.

UK employees will experience pay increases of 2.5% – a drop of 0.5% since 2013 and falling behind inflation, which is expected to be 2.7% in 2014. France too will see pay rise by 2.5% next year – 0.1% less than last year. Salary increases in Germany will remain at 3% for a second year.

Pay rises in North America are predicted at 2.7%. This reflects a mood of cautious optimism as the economy gets healthier and unemployment continues to drop.

Iain Fitzpatrick comments: “In times of slow-growth, organizations must keep a keen eye on the bottom line to remain competitive – minimizing costs and driving productivity.

“However, as raised inflation bites for many employees, there is an opportunity for organizations to be creative about how they reward their people – going beyond cash. It’s about spending smarter, not more, and reviewing return on reward spend frequently to ensure the firm is getting bang for buck.

“Securing the commitment of employees by developing clear career management plans, nurturing key talent and creating a buzz around the company’s vision can also play a role in engaging and retaining employees over the long-term.”

Please note: this study should be credited to ‘global management consultancy, Hay Group’, and not ‘Hay’ or ‘Hays’, which are separate and unrelated organisations.

For further information

For further information on this story or to interview Iain Fitzpatrick please contact Mitch Kent at +1 215 861 2315 or mitch.kent@haygroup.com.

Notes to Editors:

About the study The data was drawn from Hay Group PayNet which contains data for more than 15 million job holders in 22,000 organizations across more than 100 countries.

It shows predicted salary increases for 2014 and compares them to predictions made at this time last year regarding 2013.

                         
Country     Region     2014 forecast     2013 forecast     Difference
Bahrain     Africa and ME     2.3%     3.3%     -1.0%
Morocco     Africa and ME     4.4%     N/A     N/A
Oman     Africa and ME     5.0%     5.0%     0.0%
Saudi Arabia     Africa and ME     5.0%     5.0%     0.0%
United Arab Emirates     Africa and ME     5.0%     5.0%     0.0%
Qatar     Africa and ME     5.0%     6.0%     -1.0%
Kuwait     Africa and ME     5.0%     7.0%     -2.0%
Tunisia     Africa and ME     6.0%     N/A     N/A
Jordan     Africa and ME     6.0%     6.0%     0.0%
Algeria     Africa and ME     6.4%     N/A     N/A

South Africa1

    Africa and ME     7.0%     7.0%     0.0%
Egypt     Africa and ME     10%     11.2%     -1.2%
Kazakhstan     Africa and ME     9.1%     N/A     N/A
Lebanon     Africa and ME     6.5%     6.8%     -0.3%
Hong Kong     Asia     4.8%     4.7%     0.1%
Korea     Asia     5.0%     5.3%     -0.3%
Thailand     Asia     6.0%     6.0%     0.0%
Malaysia     Asia     6.0%     6.2%     -0.2%
Philippines     Asia     7.8%     8.0%     -0.2%
China     Asia     8.6%     9.5%     -0.9%
Indonesia     Asia     10.0%     10.6%     -0.6%
India     Asia     10.9%     10.5%     0.4%
Vietnam     Asia     11.5%     12.8%     -1.3%
Japan     Asia     2.0%     2.0%     0.0%
Singapore     Asia     4.0%     4.0%     0.0%
Bulgaria     Europe     5.0%     4.5%     0.5%
Romania     Europe     5.0%     5.0%     0.0%
Serbia     Europe     5.2%     2.7%     2.5%
Turkey     Europe     7.7%     8.0%     -0.3%
Russian Federation     Europe     7.8%     9.0%     -1.3%
Ukraine     Europe     7.9%     10.0%     -2.1%
Cyprus     Europe     0.0%     N/A     N/A
Greece     Europe     0.0%     0.0%     0.0%
Ireland     Europe     0.8%     0.0%     0.8%
Portugal     Europe     0.8%     1.7%     -0.9%
Spain     Europe     1.1%     1.5%     -0.4%
Switzerland     Europe     1.5%     2.0%     -0.5%
Finland     Europe     1.9%     2.2%     -0.3%
Czech Republic     Europe     2.0%     2.0%     0.0%
Netherlands     Europe     2.3%     2.4%     -0.1%
Latvia     Europe     2.4%     2.3%     0.1%
France     Europe     2.5%     2.6%     -0.1%
Slovakia     Europe     2.5%     2.9%     -0.4%
United Kingdom     Europe     2.5%     3.0%     -0.5%
Denmark     Europe     2.5%     2.5%     0.0%
Lithuania     Europe     2.6%     1.8%     0.7%
Belgium     Europe     2.6%     3.5%     -0.9%
Sweden     Europe     2.7%     3.0%     -0.3%
Luxembourg     Europe     2.9%     3.5%     -0.6%
Germany     Europe     3.0%     3.0%     0.0%
Poland     Europe     3.0%     4.0%     -1.0%
Austria     Europe     3.2%     3.0%     0.2%
Estonia     Europe     3.2%     3.3%     -0.1%
Italy     Europe     3.3%     2.7%     0.6%
Hungary     Europe     3.5%     3.3%     0.2%
Norway     Europe     3.6%     4.0%     -0.5%
Mexico     Latin America     4.5%     5.0%     -0.5%
Colombia     Latin America     5.0%     6.2%     -1.2%
Guatemala     Latin America     5.5%     4.5%     1.0%
Chile     Latin America     6.1%     6.5%     -0.4%
Brazil     Latin America     6.1%     5.5%     0.6%
Costa Rica     Latin America     6.1%     6.8%     -0.7%
Peru     Latin America     6.4%     6.0%     0.4%
Honduras     Latin America     7.1%     6.1%     1.0%
Nicaragua     Latin America     7.6%     8.7%     -1.2%
Argentina     Latin America     24.3%     24.5%     -0.2%
Venezuela     Latin America     27.0%     27.0%     0.0%
Canada     North America     2.7%     2.9%     -0.2%
United States of America     North America     2.8%     3.0%     -0.2%
New Zealand     Pacific     2.8%     3.0%     -0.2%
Australia     Pacific     3.5%     4.0%     -0.5%
               

To view an infographic of the 2014 global salary rise projections please visit: www.atrium.haygroup.com/ww/our-products/misc.aspx?id=4288

For more information, please visit: www.atrium.haygroup.com

1 Inflation rates, Economist Intelligence Unit

About Hay Group

Hay Group is a global management consulting firm that works with leaders to transform strategy into reality. We develop talent, organize people to be more effective and motivate them to perform at their best. Our focus is on making change happen and helping people and organizations realize their potential.

We have over 3000 employees working in 87 offices in 49 countries. Our insight is supported by robust data from over 125 countries. Our clients are from the private, public and not-for-profit sectors, across every major industry. For more information please contact your local office through www.haygroup.com.

Contacts

Hay Group
Mitch Kent, +1-215-861-2315
mitch.kent@haygroup.com

Release Summary

Salary rises across the world are in decline, according to the latest pay forecast data from global management consultancy, Hay Group.

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Contacts

Hay Group
Mitch Kent, +1-215-861-2315
mitch.kent@haygroup.com