NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings has taken various actions on 49 classes in 4 U.S. RMBS transactions. A detailed list of rating actions is available at 'www.fitchratings.com' by performing a title search for 'U.S. RMBS Rating Actions for Dec. 4, 2013', or by using the link provided.
Rating Action Summary:
-- 42 classes affirmed;
-- 4 classes upgraded;
-- 3 classes downgraded.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The transactions were included as part of an annual review of rated classes. The underlying mortgage loans have generally experienced stable-to-positive delinquency trends reflecting the improving housing market. Over the past year, home prices have increased over 10% nationally.
Fitch analyzes each bond in a number of different scenarios to determine the likelihood of full principal recovery and timely interest. The scenario analysis incorporates various combinations of the following stressed assumptions: mortgage loss, loss timing, interest rates, prepayments, servicer advancing and loan modifications.
The analysis includes rating stress scenarios from 'CCCsf' to 'AAAsf'. The 'CCCsf' scenario is intended to be the most-likely base-case scenario. Rating scenarios above 'CCCsf' are increasingly more stressful and less-likely outcomes. Although many variables are adjusted in the stress scenarios, the primary driver of the loss scenarios is the home price forecast assumption. In the 'Bsf' scenario, Fitch assumes home prices decline 10% below their long-term sustainable level. The home price decline assumption is increased by 5% at each higher rating category up to a 35% decline in the 'AAAsf' scenario.
Classes with a rating below 'CCCsf' are likely to default at some point in the future. As default becomes more imminent, those classes are expected to migrate towards 'Csf' and eventually 'Dsf'.
The ratings of bonds currently rated 'Bsf' or higher will be sensitive to future mortgage borrower behavior, which historically has been strongly correlated with home price movements. Despite recent positive trends, Fitch currently expects home prices to decline in some areas before reaching a sustainable level. While Fitch's ratings reflect this home price view, the ratings of outstanding classes may be subject to revision to the extent actual home price and mortgage performance trends differ from those currently projected by Fitch.
The spreadsheet 'U.S. RMBS Rating Actions for Dec. 4, 2013' provides the contact information for the performance analyst.
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'U.S. RMBS Surveillance Criteria' (Oct. 10, 2013);
--'Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria' (May 24, 2013);
--'U.S. RMBS Loan Loss Model Criteria' (Aug. 9, 2013);
--'U.S. RMBS Cash Flow Analysis Criteria' (April 19, 2013);
--'Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions' (Jan. 25, 2013);
--'Criteria for Rating Caps and Limitations in Global Structured Finance Transactions' (June 12, 2013);
--'Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds' (May 13, 2013);
--'Structured Finance Recovery Estimates for Distressed Securities' (Nov. 18, 2011).
Applicable Criteria and Related Research: U.S. RMBS Rating Actions for Dec. 4, 2013
U.S. RMBS Surveillance Criteria
Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria
U.S. RMBS Loan Loss Model Criteria
U.S. RMBS Cash Flow Analysis Criteria
Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions
Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds
Structured Finance Recovery Estimates for Distressed Securities