DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8f8kdf/country_risk_servi) has announced the addition of the "Country Risk Service Bahrain Updater" report to their offering.
Bahrain was the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) country most affected by social unrest in 2011, and the Economist Intelligence Unit expects there to be simmering political discontent during the forecast period. The ruling Al Khalifa family will remain in power, but street protests and crackdowns by the security forces will continue.
Hardliners in the government are in the ascendancy and will not lend any credibility to the government's efforts to extend a hand to the opposition to build credibility for some reforms. Some opposition groups will call for the downfall of the monarch. Iran's nuclear programme will be the dominant foreign policy risk. Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and could be targeted by Iran in the event of a military conflict over Iran's nuclear programme.
We expect further integration between members of the Gulf Co-operation Council, following a pledge by wealthier members of the bloc to provide Bahrain and Oman with US$10bn each in aid over ten years. Economic policy will focus on shoring up growth, diversifying the economy and restoring confidence in Bahrain. The government will raise public spending in 2012-13, as it boosts subsidies and expands capital projects. We forecast that economic growth will average 3.5% a year in 2012-16.
Bahrain at a glance: 2012-16
Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability
Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch
Central scenario for 2012-16: International relations
Central scenario for 2012-16: In focus: Gulf union idea sparks Iranian ange
Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation
Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector
Key risk indicators
International assumptions summary
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External financing requirement
External debt stock
External debt service
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