Patent Expirations Put More Than $290 Billion in Prescription Drug Sales at Risk Through 2018

EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2018 warns of excessive R&D spending, but patent cliff may “liberate” drug companies

BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--EvaluatePharma, the premier provider of pharmaceutical and biotech analysis including consensus forecasts, today released its World Preview 2018 report, providing an in-depth look at how the patent cliff will reshape the drug industry over the next six years — with valuable insight into which companies and products will come out as winners. [Note to editors: The report is available for download at www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.]

“The patent cliff in its own right may not be the problem, but rather the way management reacts to it.”

The market for prescription drugs, based on the consensus forecast for the leading 500 pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, will grow by 3.1 percent per year between 2011 and 2018 to reach $885 billion, according to World Preview 2018.

EvaluatePharma’s analysis shows that more than $290 billion of prescription drug sales are at risk from patent expirations during that time frame. As companies have worked to rebuild their pipeline, the pharmaceutical industry has spent $1.1 trillion over the last 10 years on research and development, according to the report.

“It is often said there is an R&D productivity issue, but is it just poor portfolio strategy and investment choices? Is too much money being spent chasing too few quality R&D projects?” asks Anthony Raeside, Head of Research. “The patent cliff in its own right may not be the problem, but rather the way management reacts to it.”

The World Preview 2018 report will be officially released at the 2012 BIO International Convention, held June 18-21 in Boston. A hard-copy Executive Summary of World Preview 2018 will be available at EvaluatePharma’s Booth 1421, and the report is available for download at www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.

In addition to assessing forecast trends in prescription drug sales and R&D spending, World Preview 2018 also looks at therapy area growth and the performance of marketed and pipeline products. Among this year’s key findings:

• In the race to become the top pharmaceutical company, in terms of total prescription drug sales, Novartis will emerge as a clear leader in 2018, with sales forecast to reach $51.3 billion by that year. That’s $3 billion ahead of its closest competitors, Pfizer and Sanofi.
• Gilead Sciences is set to climb the most positions within the top 20, moving up seven places to number 15 with prescription sales of $15.1 billion in 2018, thanks in large part to the company's strong HIV franchise and impressive forecasts for GS-7977, its recently acquired development stage hepatitis C product.
• Looking at which products will top the sales charts, Merck & Co.'s Type 2 diabetes therapy franchise, Januvia/Janumet, will reign. The franchise is forecast to be the largest global brand in 2018, with sales forecast showing a 10 percent compound annual growth rate between 2011 and 2018 to reach $9.7 billion in sales.
• Gilead's potential new hepatitis C polymerase inhibitor, GS-7977 — forecast to achieve $5.4 billion in sales in 2018 — is the highest ranked R&D product in 2018. The second-highest ranked product currently in R&D is Biogen Idec's oral multiple sclerosis agent, BG-12, which is expected to reach $3.4 billion in sales in 2018.

In this year’s report, EvaluatePharma has added, for the first time, a geographic analysis looking at the performance of the U.S., Europe and Japan pharmaceutical markets in 2011. The analysis reveals major market growth flatlining in 2011, with little or no growth in the U.S., a decline in Europe, and modest growth in Japan.

Complimentary copies of World Preview 2018 are available for download. Access the report at www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.

About EvaluatePharma

Since 1996, EvaluatePharma has been the premier source for pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector analysis, delivering exclusive, trusted commercial insight into industry performance through its proprietary platform. EvaluatePharma is staffed by a team of 75 dedicated healthcare analysts employing rigorous methodologies to collate, organize and deliver the most-up-to-date commercial performance data available. An award-winning editorial team of journalists writing under the EP Vantage name support EvaluatePharma’s analysis, and enable the life science community to make sound business decisions about value and opportunity. For more information please visit www.evaluatepharma.com.