Modest PC Growth Meets Expectations with Little Change for 2011 Before Recovering in 2012, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--()--Worldwide PC shipments increased by just 2.7% in the second quarter of 2011 (2Q11) compared to a forecast of 2.9% for the quarter. For the full year, worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow by just 2.8% in 2011, a slight downward revision from the previous forecast of 4.2%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. An unfortunately familiar combination of cautious spending wrought by economic fears, PC saturation in mature markets, and budget cannibalization from competing devices, such as media tablets, is expected to contribute to weak growth in the second half of the year. With poor conditions persisting, and aggravated by increased concerns relating to U.S. and European economic growth, IDC has also slightly lowered its forecast for 2012 from 10.2% to 9.3% year-over-year growth. For 2013 through 2015, growth is still expected to be around 11%.

Although shipments during the second quarter were on target, PC buying in mature markets remained weak, especially among small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and consumers. Western Europe, beset by persistent sovereign debt fears and a satiated consumer base, dropped more than 20% compared to a year ago. The U.S. declined by almost 5%. However, there were also some positive results; Enterprise spending held up as expected and emerging regions continued to show good momentum, as evidenced by China overtaking the U.S. to become the largest PC market in the world. Growth in emerging markets remains in double-digits, offsetting declines in more mature regions as the shift in growth to emerging countries accelerates.

"While consumers have pulled back in part due to economic circumstances, consumer PCs have also suffered due to a relative lack of compelling offerings. With the excitement of mini notebooks largely past, the PC industry has struggled to come up with compelling features to keep buyer interest, and has subsequently suffered some budget-competition from smartphones as well as media tablets, which sold more than 107 million and 13.5 million units, respectively in the second quarter of 2011," said Jay Chou, senior research analyst, Worldwide PC Tracker. "The proposed spin-off of HP's PC business has also contributed to uncertainty in the market as the channel and corporate users re-evaluate their next steps."

"In these tight economic times, and with new and competing products for consumers and businesses to spend money on, PC growth will remain slow in the next couple quarters.," said Loren Loverde, vice president, Worldwide Consumer Trackers, "Nevertheless, replacement of existing PCs, sustained growth and rising penetration in emerging regions, as well as refreshed offerings next year, will drive healthy growth in the long term."

             

PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2010-2015

(Shipments in millions)

 
Region   Form Factor   2010   2011*   2012*   2013*   2014*   2015*
Mature Markets Desktop PC 57.8 53.2 53.5 51.8 50.4 49.8
Mature Markets Portable PC 108.9 101.5 109.0 119.8 132.5 143.7
Mature Markets Total PC 166.7 154.7 162.5 171.6 182.8 193.5
 
Emerging Markets Desktop PC 88.1 92.7 96.2 100.4 103.2 105.4
Emerging Markets Portable PC 92.3 109.6 131.2 161.5 195.6 236.3
Emerging Markets Total PC 180.4 202.2 227.5 261.9 298.8 341.8
 
Worldwide Desktop PC 145.9 145.9 149.7 152.2 153.6 155.3
Worldwide Portable PC 201.2 211.0 240.3 281.3 328.1 380.0
Worldwide Total PC 347.1 356.9 390.0 433.5 481.7 535.3

* Forecast data
Mature Markets includes U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada.
Emerging Markets includes Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Africa, Middle East and Africa.
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, August 2011

             

PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2010-2015

 
Region   Form Factor   2010   2011*   2012*   2013*   2014*   2015*
Mature Markets Desktop PC 3.2% -7.9% 0.5% -3.2% -2.7% -1.0%
Mature Markets Portable PC 8.5% -6.8% 7.5% 9.9% 10.5% 8.5%
Mature Markets Total PC 6.6% -7.2% 5.1% 5.6% 6.5% 5.9%
 
Emerging Markets Desktop PC 9.8% 5.2% 3.8% 4.3% 2.8% 2.1%
Emerging Markets Portable PC 34.6% 18.7% 19.8% 23.1% 21.1% 20.8%
Emerging Markets Total PC 21.2% 12.1% 12.5% 15.1% 14.1% 14.4%
 
Worldwide Desktop PC 7.1% 0.0% 2.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1%
Worldwide Portable PC 19.1% 4.9% 13.9% 17.1% 16.6% 15.8%
Worldwide Total PC 13.7% 2.8% 9.3% 11.2% 11.1% 11.1%

* Forecast data
Mature Markets includes U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada.
Emerging Markets includes Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Africa, Middle East and Africa.
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, August 2011

Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs, and do not include handhelds or Media Tablets.

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC

IDC is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 47 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.

Contacts

International Data Corporation
Loren Loverde, 305-351-3115
lloverde@idc.com
or
Jay Chou, 650-350-6464
jchou@idc.com
or
Bob O'Donnell, 650-350-6482
bodonnell@idc.com
or
Michael Shirer, 508-935-4200
press@idc.com

Release Summary

Worldwide PC shipments increased by just 2.7% in the second quarter of 2011 compared to a forecast of 2.9% for the quarter, according to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

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Contacts

International Data Corporation
Loren Loverde, 305-351-3115
lloverde@idc.com
or
Jay Chou, 650-350-6464
jchou@idc.com
or
Bob O'Donnell, 650-350-6482
bodonnell@idc.com
or
Michael Shirer, 508-935-4200
press@idc.com