UxC Says Global Nuclear Power Forecasts Drop Following Fukushima, but Significant Growth Still Expected

ROSWELL, Ga.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The Ux Consulting Company, LLC (UxC), a leading provider of global market and consulting services in the nuclear industry, announces the release of new global nuclear power forecasts following the Fukushima Daiichi accident in Japan. Based on UxC’s quarterly Nuclear Power Outlook (NPO), which provides proprietary forecasts for worldwide nuclear reactors through 2030, the Fukushima accident has notably impacted future nuclear power growth. However, UxC also foresees steady construction of reactors – especially in major countries like China, Russia, India, and South Korea – continuing over the coming decades.

Specifically, UxC’s Base case 2011-Q2 NPO forecast shows:

• 438 reactors totaling 374 gigawatts-electric (GWe) operating in 30 countries today
• 64 reactors currently under construction in 15 countries
• By 2015: 484 reactors & 422 GWe in 31 countries (13 GWe lower after Fukushima)
• By 2020: 545 reactors & 490 GWe in 36 countries (43 GWe lower after Fukushima)
• By 2030: 638 reactors & 632 GWe in 45 countries (85 GWe lower after Fukushima)

UxC’s more optimistic High case shows 541 GWe by 2020 and 781 GWe by 2030. Even under unfavorable conditions, UxC still anticipates growth, leading to a Low case total of 438 GWe by 2020 and 515 GWe by 2030. These cases have also dropped notably after Fukushima.

The direct impacts of the Fukushima accident include the likely accelerated decommissioning of reactors in critical countries (e.g. Germany and Japan) and a reduction in the rate of new reactor construction, especially in the United States, Western Europe, and some newcomer states. Still, even with these negative impacts, UxC’s analysis shows that nuclear power will be a key component of future energy expansion, especially in the faster-growing regions of the world.

Based on these post-Fukushima forecasts, UxC is publishing numerous studies to analyze the impacts on different aspects of the nuclear reactor and fuel cycle markets.

In April 2011, UxC issued an Addendum to its Nuclear Industry Value Chain (NIVC) annual report. Updating the February 2011 market analysis for each sector of the nuclear industry, the NIVC Addendum shows a drop of roughly $32 billion for 2020 and $57 billion for 2030 in the total nuclear market size forecasts after Fukushima. However, net growth in the nuclear markets is still expected to reach 250% by 2030 over the 2010 baseline. Thus, investment opportunities remain strong in this expanding industry.

Given the wide-reaching implications of the Fukushima accident, UxC is also preparing a special report on Nuclear Power in the Post-Fukushima Era to be issued in May 2011. Fukushima has already had indelible effects on Japan, the nuclear industry, and global energy markets. While some ramifications are not yet fully grasped, it is critical to begin the process of analyzing the likely impacts. UxC’s Post-Fukushima special report reviews the technical as well as commercial level impacts and includes detailed analysis on a wide range of relevant topics, such as lessons learned and implications for operating and new reactors as well as spent nuclear fuel. UxC is also proposing some technical solutions for improved nuclear plant safety.

Finally, UxC is using its revised outlook for nuclear power after Fukushima to issue updated versions of the NPO as well as its industry-leading nuclear fuel market analysis reports on uranium, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication. For example, detailed results of UxC’s new, lower uranium (U₃O₈) fuel demand forecasts will be presented in the 2011-Q2 Uranium Market Outlook report.

All of UxC’s reports and consulting services are available for purchase.