Research and Markets: Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/b1dd9a/bulgaria_oil_and_g) has announced the addition of the "Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010" report to their offering.

“Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010”

Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's oil and gas industry.

The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.90% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.81mn b/d in 2009. It should average 6.03mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 6.69mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.88mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.35mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.57mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.54mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.88mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 668.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 780.0bcm targeted for 2014, representing 13.7% growth. Production of an estimated 830.3bcm in 2009 should reach 1,025.7bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 162bcm in 2009 to 246bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria's share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.55%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.71%.

We are sticking with our forecast that the OPEC basket of crudes will average US$83.00/bbl in 2010. Wide variations in crude differentials so far in 2010 make forecasting tricky for Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Urals, but we believe the three benchmarks will average around US$85.11, US$88.22 and US$83.62/bbl respectively, with Dubai coming in at US$83.14. By 2011, there should be further growth in oil consumption and more room for OPEC to regain market share and reduce surplus capacity through higher production quotas. We are assuming a further increase in the OPEC basket price to an average US$85.00/bbl. For 2012 and beyond, we continue to use a central case forecast of US$90.00/bbl for the OPEC basket.

For 2010, the assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$96.83/bbl. The year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 38%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$92.45/bbl, with the full-year outturn representing a 37% increase from the 2009 level. For jet fuel in 2010, the annual level is forecast to be US$95.58/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put at US$82.46/bbl, up 39% from the previous years level.

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