Research and Markets: Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/60383e/thailand_pharmaceu) has announced the addition of the "Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010" report to their offering.

“Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010”

Business Monitor International's Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

BMI believes the recent unrest in Thailand will not have an immediate impact on pharmaceutical sales or the revenue earning opportunities of drugmakers because the demand for healthcare is relatively independent of the trends in the economy people get ill and need medicines despite drops in national wealth. However, note the word relatively. We believe the conflict and its effect on the country's economy could have a longer-term impact on drugmaker's revenues in Thailand as a result of the downward trend in consumer spending, as well as the slowdown in government contributions towards healthcare schemes. Thailand's economy is the biggest loser of the political stalemate, which has negatively affected the country's investment climate as well as its tourism industry, including medical tourism. The violent clashes in Thailand could cost the economy THB150bn (US$4.6bn), according to a statement by Deputy Prime Minister Trairong Suwankiri in May 2010.

Consequently, BMI expects headline real GDP expansion to average a below-potential 4.0% per annum over the next decade. The governments budget deficit amounted to 4.0% of GDP in 2009 and we believe the cost of the violence will not ease these fiscal pressures. We calculate that fiscal expenditure will drop by 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2010, having grown by 15% in 2009, which we believe will have a bearing on the governments ability to provide adequate healthcare and pharmaceutical services.

We believe the governments THB30 scheme may be an area of concern. Under the scheme, implemented in 2001, even uninsured patients may visit any government hospital and pay only a nominal sum per visit, with the remaining cost of the treatment paid by the government. The scheme covers most basic diseases, as well as surgery and expensive treatments such as those for HIV/AIDS and cancer. An estimated 80% of the population benefits from the plan, with the government hoping that universal health coverage can be achieved throughout the country in the long term.

Political deadlock and its effect on government finances could further delay progress on health sector reforms. HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of death in Thailand, illustrating a huge need for treatment. This therapeutic area is set to increase in value as the government has unveiled a series of new measures that make Thailand the first country in the world to guarantee antiretroviral (ARV) treatment to all patients requiring such remedies. However, as the drugs are provided free of charge, some questions remain over the viability of funding in the future.

In 2009, pharmaceutical sales reached a value of THB138.45bn (US$4.04bn) and in 2010 we calculate drug sales to reach THB150.09bn (US$4.59bn). By 2014, we expect Thailand's pharmaceutical market to be worth THB207.60bn (US$6.81bn), equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.44% in local currency terms and 11.01% in US dollar terms.

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Executive Summary