Research and Markets: Malaysia Freight Transport Report Q4 2010 - in Volume Terms Total Cargo is Expected to Gain 8.1% in 2010

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/6c239a/malaysia_freight_t) has announced the addition of the "Malaysia Freight Transport Report Q4 2010" report to their offering.

The Malaysia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's freight transportation industry.

The international aviation business has been highly volatile in recent years, but there seems little doubt in Asia at least that the next move is up. In a sign of the times Malaysia Airports Holdings was to issue bonds worth MYR2.7bn (US$824mn) in June 2010 to fund the construction of the country's second, lowcost carrier air terminal and refinance existing debt. According to Reuters, the state-owned firm would issue MYR1bn (US$301mn) in Islamic bonds and US$500mn in conventional bonds, reportedly targeting investors from Hong Kong, Singapore and the Middle East. The firm forecasts that construction of the new low-cost terminal will cost US$662mn. The terminal, which will be near Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA), the country's largest airport, will be capable of handling 30mn passengers a year when it is completed, in 2012. It will help ease air traffic congestion and accommodate more passengers, which is important given that the country is becoming a hub for low-cost air travel. Indeed, in many cases, the most practical way to travel between the two parts of the country is by the low-cost air carrier. The Malaysian macroeconomic environment is improving, to the benefit of the freight transport sector. What is perhaps not yet clear is whether the improvement will be vigorous or merely satisfactory. On the 'vigorous' side of the equation we point to signs of a V-shaped economic recovery after the recession of 2009. After falling by 1.7% last year, we now predict that GDP will come back strongly, with 4.9% growth in 2010, led by the wholesale and retail trade and a resumption of private sector investment.

Across out five-year forecast horizon, we expect GDP to grow by a respectable annual average of 4.8%. On the 'satisfactory', or even 'disappointing' side of the equation, the government will have to do some fiscal tightening, cutting back expenditure, and the threat of a 'double dip' global slowdown in 2011 seems to be suggesting exports will not lead growth as strongly as they have in the past. That is significant as it means shipping demand and port activity may be more muted.

The Malaysian airfreight sector will recover strongly this year, lifted by economic growth, the generally dynamic performance of regional Asian airfreight demand and the improving finances of the main local carriers including Malaysian Airlines (MAS). In volume terms we expect total cargo to gain 8.1% in 2010.

We project a vigorous recovery in railfreight, as investment flows into the sector and Malaysia's regional development plans gather pace. In volume terms we project 15.3% growth this year, more than correcting for the 2009 contraction of 12.9%.

This year's trade recovery is making itself felt on the docks at the Port of Klang (POK), Malaysia's largest terminal for general cargo. BMI is projecting a vigorous increase in volume there, up by 20.7%, more than offsetting the 9.6% contraction during the slump last year. At the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (POTP) we see volume gaining by 13.9%. Unlike POK, there was no contraction last year. The Port of Klang is expected to see 21.2% container handling growth this year. The Port of Tanjung Pelepas will see growth of 10.0% in box traffic.

In real terms we expect Malaysia's total trade (imports and exports) to recover this year, following the sharp 11.3% fall in 2009. In fact, BMI is projecting a 10.5% growth rate, almost recovering all the ground that was lost in 2009. However, next year, in 2011, as we expect a 'double dip' global economic slowdown originated by both China and the US to come into play, Malaysian trade growth will slow to 2.6%. Across our five-year medium term forecast we expect annual average trade growth in real terms of 5.1%. Imports will lead the way with average growth of 6.1%, ahead of exports at a slower 4.3%.

We believe there are two major risks to our Malaysia freight forecast, both on the downside. The first is if a deeper-than-expected 'double dip' recession emerged in 2011, particularly in China, which would have a negative ripple-effect throughout Asia, reducing trade growth and shipping demand. The second risk is political and concerns any developments that could take the government's focus off the management of the economy and the gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit. Both the ruling coalition and the main opposition party have been suffering from internal disagreements, so a 'destabilisation' scenario could originate in various different ways.

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