Zacks Earnings Preview: Caterpillar, Texas Instruments, Intersil, Qualcomm and Tractor Supply

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN), Intersil (Nasdaq: ISIL), Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) and Tractor Supply (Nasdaq: TSCO).

“Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices.”

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The Week's Events

Earnings season will hit full stride with reports from nearly 500 companies. Approximately 1 out of every 4 earnings release will be from a firm in the financial sector.

Large-cap stocks will once again dominate the headlines, as 139 S&P 500 members are on the docket. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and many other Dow components are included in this group.

The highlight of the economic calendar will be Ben Bernanke's semi-annual report on monetary policy (aka Humphrey-Hawkins). The Fed Chairman will appear before a House committee on Tuesday and a Senate committee on Wednesday.

Otherwise, there will not be much news on the economic front.

Monday: June Leading Indicators
Wednesday: weekly crude inventories
Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: Revised July University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will discuss his economic outlook with the Rotary Club of Nashville on Monday. No other Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

The market really has not reacted much to better-than-expected earnings. Though a big rally did occur last Wednesday, volume outside the semiconductor group was generally light. And yesterday's afternoon rally was in reaction to comments made by Nouriel Roubini that were taken out of context.

This raises the possibility that we could see more of the same for the coming week, especially given how trades have not expressed joy over blowout earnings from some of the largest financial firms so far.

If there is going to be a move to the upside, tech will have to be the catalyst. And we do have a handful of large-cap tech companies reporting (e.g. Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN), so there is the possibility of some good daily moves.

But, investors should continue to eye volume, which continues to signal a willingness among many to simply sit on the sidelines.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Intersil (Nasdaq: ISIL) raised its second-quarter revenue guidance late last month. The majority of the covering analysts responded by hiking their quarterly profit projections. These revisions led to a 5-cent increase in the consensus earnings estimate, to 9 cents per share. The semiconductor company has topped expectations during 5 out of the last 6 quarters. Intersil is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Jul 22, after the close of trading.

Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) is a riskier pick, given that it has disappointed investors for 2 consecutive quarters. But, the company did raise its fiscal third-quarter guidance last month, citing strong demand for wireless broadband. Furthermore, one analyst upped his quarterly forecast this week. The consensus estimate now calls for profits of 45 cents per share (up 2 cents from a month ago). The most accurate estimate is more bullish at 46 cents per share. Qualcomm is scheduled to report on Wed, Jul 22, after the close of trading.

Last month, Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) updated its second-quarter forecast. This resulted in a sharp increase in the consensus estimate to 19 cents per share, the midpoint of TXN's suggested range. Could this forecast still be too conservative? Judging by the fact that 2 brokerage analysts just raised their second-quarter forecasts and the bullish results from other chip makers, the answer could well be yes. TXN has topped expectations for 2 consecutive quarters. Texas Instruments is scheduled to report on Monday, Jul 20, after the close of trading.

Tractor Supply (Nasdaq: TSCO) anticipates reporting second-quarter earnings of $1.48 to $1.50 per share. The recent guidance was far above the consensus estimate and caused all of the covering analysts to revise their projections. Though the consensus estimate now calls for profits of $1.49 per share, there is still room for further upside given TSCO's streak of 4 consecutive positive earnings surprises. Tractor Supply is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Jul 22, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) has disappointed investors during 2 out of the last 3 quarters. Though the slowing pace of economic contraction should be a positive for CAT, 5 analysts have cut their second-quarter profit forecasts within the past 30 days. The revisions have caused the consensus earnings estimate to fall by 3 cents to 21 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 14 cents per share. Caterpillar is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Jul 21, before the start of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

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Since 1988, the Zacks Rank has proven that "Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices." Since inception in 1988, #1 Rank Stocks have generated an average annual return of +26%. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained +43.8%, while the S&P 500 tumbled -37.6%. Also note that the Zacks Rank system has just as many Strong Sell recommendations (Rank #5) as Strong Buy recommendations (Rank #1). Since 1988, Zacks Rank #5 stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 by 111% annually (-0.8% versus +8%). Thus, the Zacks Rank system allows investors to truly manage portfolio trading effectively.

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