Focus on the Market Trend: the Couponing Consumer in a Down Economy

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Market Trend: The Couponing Consumer in a Down Economy

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Crisis is the word of the day when it comes to the U.S. economy late in 2008. Housing crisis, credit crisis, auto industry crisis. As Americans find themselves caught in the grip of an economic recession, they are adjusting their budgets and rethinking their spending habits. The unforgiving economic situation has led to an increased consumer focus on finding ways to save money, and coupons present one tried and true method for mediating the quickening void. Not only do coupons serve the general purpose of saving money, but they can also lead the way for the many consumers who are transitioning to less expensive brands and trying out less expensive products.

This all new Packaged Facts report, Marketing Trend: The Couponing Consumer in a Down Economy, uses current and historical Simmons Market Research consumer data to look at coupon-related consumer penetration rates and consumer demographics. Packaged Facts analyses retail and product category coupon use, including an overview of the demographic characteristics of consumers more likely than average to redeem coupons within these categories. This report also covers consumer use of coupon sources such as mailers, inserts, magazines, etc. The report ends with an overview of coupon opportunities for marketers in this difficult environment.

Chapter 1: Executive Summary

Economic Landscape

2008 Real GDP Growth Forecasted at a Meager 1.3%; 2009 at Negative 0.8%

Figure 1-1: Percentage Changes in U.S. Current-Dollar GDP, Real GDP and the GDP Price Index, 2002-2008 (percent)

Personal Consumption Slows

Figure 1-2: Percentage Changes in U.S. Current-Dollar PCE, Real PCE and the PCE Price Index, 2002-2008 (percent)

Consumer Prices on the Rise

Figure 1-3: Average Annual Percent Change in the Consumer Price Index For All Items, Durable Goods, Non-Durable Goods and Services, 1978-Q3, 2008 (percent)

Unemployment

Figure 1-4: Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims: Four-Week Moving Average, Four-Year Moving Average, 18-Month Moving Average, January 6, 1979- November 15, 2008 (in thousands)

Retail Sales Show Biggest Monthly Decline Ever

Figure 1-5: Comparison of Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales, Excluding Autos (index and percentage change) and Monthly Unemployment Rate, 1998-2008 (percent)

Coupon Usage

Consumers Cite Economy for Increase in Couponing

Note on Simmons Market Research Bureau Consumer Data

Consumers Using Coupons to Save Money, but Also to Sample

Table 1-1: Reason for Using Coupons, Spring 2008 (percent)

Saving Money Transcends HHI and HH Makeup

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons to Save Money

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons to Try New Products

Simmons Spring 2008 Data Suggest Coupon Use Back on the Rise

Table 1-2: Percentage of Households Using Coupons, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

Affluent Households Show Greater Coupon Usage Penetration

Large and Single-Person Households Less Coupon Interested

Households with Children Also Less Coupon Interested

Selected Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users by Household Income

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users with HHI Less Than $25K

Table 1-3: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers with HHI Under $25K, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users with HHI between $25K and $74K

Table 1-4: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers with HHI between $25K-$74K, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users with HHI More Than $75K

Table 1-5: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers with HHI More Than $75K, Spring 2008 (index)

Opportunity: Reach Out to the Elderly

Opportunity: Hispanic Population

Coupon Attitudinal Statements

Coupons Not As Motivating Among Average Consumers

Table 1-6: Percentage Who Agree With the Coupon-Related Statements, Couponing Consumers versus Total Population, Spring 2008 (percent)

Retail Redemption and Product/Sources Used

Bulk of Redemption through Grocery Stores

Table 1-7: Percentage of Consumer Coupon Redemption by Retailer Type, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

And Grocery Products See Most Coupon Use

Table 1-8: Percentage of Consumer Coupon Usage by Coupon Product Type, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

On Shelf Coupons See Greatest Penetration

Table 1-9: Percentage of Consumer Coupon Usage by Coupon Source, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

Frequency of Use by Coupon Source

Table 1-10: Consumer Coupon Frequency of Use by Coupon Source, by Top Percentages, Spring 2008 (percent)

Looking Ahead

A Challenging Time for Marketers

Opportunity: Partnerships Such as Kraft and Campbell

Opportunity: Relationships with Non-traditional Retail Partners

Opportunity: Younger People and Online Coupons

Opportunity: Affluent Consumers Are Better Savers

Opportunity: Putting Coupons in Mobile Users' Hands

Opportunity: Winter Holidays Spend Dropping, Coupon Use Increasing

Opportunity: Restaurants Using Coupons to Entice Customers

Opportunity: Word-of-Mouth to Drive Coupon Awareness

Chapter 2: The Current Economic Landscape

Overview

Lenders Freeze Credit for Businesses and Consumers

Employers Find Little Short-Term Credit

The Consumer Is Tapped Out

Even the Basics May Suffer

2008 Real GDP Growth Forecast at Meager 1.3%; 2009 at Negative 0.8%

Figure 2-1: U.S. Current-Dollar GDP vs. Real GDP, 2002-2008 (in trillions of dollars)

Inflation Rears Its Ugly Head

Figure 2-2: Percentage Changes in U.S. Current-Dollar GDP, Real GDP and the GDP Price Index, 2002-2008 (percent)

Economic Future Uncertain

Personal Consumption Slows

Figure 2-3: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Current-Dollar versus Real, 2000-2009 (in billions of dollars)

Figure 2-4: Percentage Changes in U.S. Current-Dollar PCE, Real PCE and the PCE Price Index, 2002-2008 (percent)

Consumer Prices on the Rise

Figure 2-5: Average Annual Percent Change in the Consumer Price Index for All Items, Durable Goods, Non-Durable Goods and Services, 1978-2008 (percent)

Food Price Increase Breaks Four Percent in 2008

Figure 2-6: Average Annual Percent Change in the CPI for Food and Beverage, Food at Home and Food Away from Home, 1978-2008 (percent)

Unemployment Creeps Up

Figure 2-7: Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims: Four-Week Moving Average, Four-Year Moving Average, 18-Month Moving Average, January 6, 1979- November 15, 2008 (in thousands)

Figure 2-8: End-of-Year (December) Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate, 1978-2008 (percent)

Retail Sales Show Biggest Monthly Decline Ever

Figure 2-9: Comparison of Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Retail Sales, Excluding Autos (index and percentage change) and Monthly Unemployment Rate, 1998-2008 (percent)

Stage Set For Increased Coupon Use

Chapter 3: Coupon Usage Penetration and Demographics.

Coupons Poised for Increased Use

Economy Cited as Number One Reason

Note on Simmons Market Research Bureau Consumer Data

Consumers Using Coupons to Save Money, but Also to Sample

Table 3-1: Reason for Using Coupons, Spring 2008 (percent)

Saving Money Transcends HHI and HH Makeup

Table 3-2: Reason for Using Coupons, by Household Income, Spring 2008 (percent)

Table 3-3: Reason for Using Coupons, by Number of People in Household, Spring 2008 (percent)

Table 3-4: Reason for Using Coupons, by Number of Children in Household, Spring 2008 (percent)

Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users by Reason for Use .

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons to Save Money

Table 3-5: Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons to Save Money, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons to Try New Products

Table 3-6: Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons to Try New Product, Spring 2008 (index)

Spring 2008 Data Suggest Coupon Use Back on the Rise

Table 3-7: Percentage of Households Using Coupons, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

Coupon User Demographic Profile Non-Directional

Affluent Households Greater Coupon Usage Penetration

Table 3-8: Percentage of Households Using Coupons, by Household Income Bracket, Spring 2008 (percent)

Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users by Household Income

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users with HHI Less Than $25K

Table 3-9: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers with HHI Under $25K, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users with HHI between $25K-$74K

Table 3-10: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers with HHI between $25K-$74K, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users with HHI More Than $75K

Table 3-11: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers with HHI More Than $75K, Spring 2008 (index)

Large and Single Person Households Less Coupon Interested

Table 3-12: Percentage of Households Using Coupons, by Number of People in Household, Spring 2008 (percent)

Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users by Number of People in the Household

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users in Single Person Households

Table 3-13: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers in Single-Person Households, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users in Two Person Households

Table 3-14: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers in Two-Person Households, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users in Three, Four and Five or More Person Households

Table 3-15: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers in Three-Four Person Households, Spring 2008 (index)

Households with Children Also Less Coupon Interested

Table 3-16: Percentage of Households Using Coupons, by Number of Children in Household, Spring 2008 (Percent)

Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users by Children in the Household

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users in Childless Households

Table 3-17: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers in Childless Households, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users in Households with Children

Table 3-18: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers in Households with Children, Spring 2008 (index)

Chapter 4: Couponing Attitudinal Statements

Couponing Consumers Indicate That Coupons Drive Trial

Table 4-1: Percentage of Couponing Consumers Who Agree With the Coupon-Related Statements, Spring 2008 (percent)

Demographic Characteristics of Coupon Users by Statement

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food

Table 4-2: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop

Table 4-3: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Coupons Not As Motivating Among Average Consumers

Table 4-4: Percentage of Total Consumers Who Agree With the Coupon- Related Statements, Spring 2008 (percent)

Demographic Characteristics of Consumers who Agree with Coupon-Related Statements by Household Income, Household Size and Household Makeup

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers by Household Income who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food

Table 4-5: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with HHI less than $25K who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-6: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with HHI between $25K-$74K who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-7: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with HHI $75K or More who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers by Household Income who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop

Table 4-8: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with HHI less than $25K who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-9: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with HHI between $25K-$74K who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-10: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with HHI Greater than $75K who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers by Number of People in Household who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food

Table 4-11: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Single Person Households who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-12: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Two Person Households who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-13: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Three-Four Person Households who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-14: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Five+ Person Households who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers by Household Income who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop

Table 4-15: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Single Person Households who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-16: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Two Person Households who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-17: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Three-Four Person Households who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-18: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Five+ Person Households who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with Children who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food

Table 4-19: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Households with Children who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-20: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Childless Households who Agree with the Statement: I Am Often Swayed by Coupons to Try New Food, Spring 2008 (index)

Adoptive and Resistive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers in Households with and without Children: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop

Table 4-21: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Consumers with Children who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 4-22: Adoptive Demographic Characteristics of Childless Consumers who Agree with the Statement: Coupons Draw Me to Stores I Don't Shop, Spring 2008 (index)

Chapter 5: Coupon Retail Redemption and Product Category & Sources Used

Bulk of Redemption Through Grocery

Table 5-1: Percentage of Consumer Coupon Redemption by Retailer Type, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

Supermarket Store Redeemer Profile

Table 5-2: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Redeem Coupons at Supermarket/Grocery/Convenience Stores, Spring 2008 (index)

Restaurant Redeemer Profile

Table 5-3: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Redeem Coupons at Restaurants/Fast Food Chains, Spring 2008 (index)

Discount Store Redeemer Profile

Table 5-4: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Redeem Coupons at Discount Stores, Spring 2008 (index)

Drug Store Redeemer Profile

Table 5-5: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Redeem Coupons at Drug Stores, Spring 2008 (index)

Newsstands/Tobacco Stands Redeemer Profile

Table 5-6: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Redeem Coupons at Newsstands/Tobacco Stores, Spring 2008 (index)

Coupon Usage by Product Category

Grocery Products See Greatest Coupon Use

Table 5-7: Percentage of Consumer Coupon Usage by Coupon Product Type, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

Food and Grocery Products, Household Cleaning Products & Paper Product Coupon Redeemer Profiles: Non-Directional

Table 5-8: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Food and Grocery Products, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-9: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Household Cleaning Products, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-10: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Paper Goods, Spring 2008 (index)

Beauty and Grooming Products & Drug Products Coupon Redeemer Profile: White Collar

Table 5-11: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Beauty and Grooming Products, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-12: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Drug Products, Spring 2008 (index)

Beverage Products and Fast Food/Restaurant Coupon Redeemer Profile: Young

Table 5-13: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Beverages, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-14: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Fast Food Establishments and Restaurants, Spring 2008 (index)

Pet Food Products & Tobacco Products Coupon Redeemer Profile

Table 5-15: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Pet Food Products, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-16: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Use Coupons for Tobacco Products, Spring 2008 (index)

Usage by Coupon Source Used

On-Shelf Coupons See Greatest Penetration

Table 5-17: Percentage of Consumer Coupon Usage by Coupon Source, 2004-Spring 2008 (percent)

Frequency of Use by Coupon Source

Table 5-18: Consumer Coupon Frequency of Use by Coupon Source, by Top Percentages, Spring 2008 (percent)

Table 5-19: Consumer Coupon Frequency of Use by Coupon Source, by Type, Spring 2008 (percent)

Online Couponer Profile Different from Others

Table 5-20: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons Through Color Leaflets Received by Mail, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-21: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons Through Other Items Received by Mail, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-22: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons Through Color Leaflets Inserted in Newspapers, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-23: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons Through Other Newspaper Inserts/Advertisements, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-24: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons Through Magazines, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-25: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons In or On Packages, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-26: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons Handed Out In or Near Stores, Spring 2008 (index)

Table 5-27: Adoptive Characteristics of Consumers who Source Coupons Through the Internet or Email, Spring 2008 (index)

Chapter 6: Looking Ahead

Frugality: Economy Teaching a Long-term Lesson

A Challenging Time for Marketers

Ads Focusing on Value

Brands Forced to Shift Strategies

Brands Baring Their Fangs

High End Markets Don’t Take High End Shopper for Granted

Restaurants Feeling the Pinch

Coupon Values Increasing

Double-Coupon Policy to Get Stricter?

Opportunity: Communicating Value and Urgency Shoppers

Consumers More Informed Than Ever

Table 6-1: Statements Indicating Role as Researcher, Fact-Finder, Planner, Spring 2008 (index)

Opportunity: Newspapers Still Dominant Coupon Source, But Internet Growing

A Profile of Couponers Who Research on Internet

Table 6-2: Percentage of Couponing Consumers Who Agree With the Statement: I Use Internet to Help Plan Shopping Trips, Spring 2008 (percent)

Table 6-3: Demographic Characteristics of Couponing Consumers who Agree with the Statement: I Use Internet to Help Plan Shopping Trips, Spring 2008 (index)

Internet Main Place for Printable Coupons

Digital Coupons to See Increase Use by Majors

Valassis Launch of RedPlum.com

Vast Array of Coupon Sites

Upromise eCoupon Program

Bad Economy Good for Coupon Sites

Table 6-4: comScore Top 10 Gaining Categories by Percentage Change in Unique U.S. Visitors, May 2008 vs. April 2008 (percent)

Which Is More Convenient: Print or Online Coupons?

Online Shoppers Still Need Wooing

Making the Most of Online

Opportunity: Putting Coupons in Mobile Users' Hands

Mobile Offering Sees 70% Response