-- 50% of Massachusetts' residents are planning on voting for John Kerry, but 60% believe President Bush will win in November.
-- About 2 in 3 state residents (64%) think that the election outcome will have no effect on the likelihood of terrorist attack on the U.S.
-- Respondents believe that the one issue President Bush would do as well or better than Senator Kerry handling is the U.S. campaign against terror (48% v. 46%). However, most (51%) feel that Kerry would do a better job than Bush (41%) on the war in Iraq.
-- More state residents (53%) see the war in Iraq emerging as the most important issue in the presidential race. In July 42% saw this as the most important issue in the race.
-- Half (51%) of those surveyed think that independent advocacy groups should be more strictly regulated; a quarter (27%) feel they should not be; a quarter (22%) aren't sure.
-- If President Bush is re-elected, state residents are fairly evenly divided on whether they think that Governor Romney will serve out his term or take a job in Washington DC (40% v. 47%). Similarly, they are divided on whether or not they think Governor Romney will run for President in 2008 (44% v. 40%).
These findings come from the Bay State Poll, a quarterly survey of Massachusetts's residents, conducted by the Center for Public Opinion Research at Merrimack College. Eight hundred and five (805) randomly selected state residents over the age of eighteen were interviewed by telephone between September 25th and October 5th, 2004. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. Detailed results and methodological information are available at www.merrimack.edu/polling.
Presidential Race - Attention and Voting
In thinking about the upcoming presidential race, would you say
% you are paying
----------------------------------------------------------------------
50 A great deal of attention
----------------------------------------------------------------------
40 Some attention
----------------------------------------------------------------------
10 Not much attention
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If the election for President Regardless of who you are
of the United States were planning on voting for, who
held today, for whom would do you think will win the
you vote presidential election
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Bush 36 59
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Kerry 50 26
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Nader 2 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Other/DK 11 14
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Presidential Race - Issues
Most Important Issue Most Important Issue
in the Presidential Personally in Deciding Whom
Race (%) to Vote For (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The War in Iraq 53 27
----------------------------------------------------------------------
National Security 21 22
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jobs and Economy 15 27
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reducing Deficit 1 2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Foreign Competition
and Jobs 1 2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gay Marriage 1 2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Health Care 3 9
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Other 2 6
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Don't Know 3 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Who Would Do a Better Job on This Issue If Elected President
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Bush Kerry Both/Neither/DK
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
US Campaign Against Terror 48 46 7
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
War in Iraq 41 51 8
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Taxes 35 58 8
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Relations with Other Countries 34 61 6
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Economy 33 59 8
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Appointments to the Supreme Court 35 51 14
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Education 31 59 10
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Creating Jobs 30 59 11
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Health Care 25 64 11
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
Helping the Middle Class 28 63 9
------------------------------------------ ---- ----- ----------------
In thinking about the likelihood of terrorist attack against the
% United States, do you think that
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Terrorist attacks against the US will be less if John Kerry is
14 elected president
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Terrorist attacks against the US will be less if George Bush is
19 elected president
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The election outcome will have no effect on the chances of
64 terrorist attacks against the US
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Presidential Race - Candidates and Campaigns
George W. Bush has the John Kerry has the
personality and leadership personality and leadership
qualities a president should qualities a president
have should have
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Agree 47 56
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Disagree 51 39
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% DK/Refused 2 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Would you say the Republican Would you say the Democratic
Party has attacked John Party has attacked George
Kerry unfairly Bush unfairly
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Has 56 44
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% Has Not 40 51
----------------------------------------------------------------------
% DK/Refused 4 6
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Should Swift Boat Veterans, and other so-called 527 independent
% advocacy groups be more strictly regulated?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
51 Yes, they should be more strictly regulated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
27 No, they should not be more strictly regulated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
22 Don't Know/Refused
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Beyond the 2004 Presidential Race
If George Bush is re-elected, will Governor Mitt Romney be
likely to serve out his four year term, or is he likely to take
% a job in Washington DC with the Bush administration?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
40 Likely to serve out his term
----------------------------------------------------------------------
47 Likely to take a job in DC
----------------------------------------------------------------------
14 DK/Refused
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regardless of who wins, do you think that Governor Romney will
% run for President in 2008?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
44 Yes
----------------------------------------------------------------------
40 No
----------------------------------------------------------------------
17 DK/Refused
----------------------------------------------------------------------
For respondents that identified as Democrat or Leaning Democrat
(Weighted N = 450)
If John Kerry were elected President, and an election were held to
fill his US Senate seat would you be most likely to vote for
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Congressman Attorney General
Stephen Lynch 5 % Thomas Riley 13 %
--------------------------------- ----------------------------------
Congressman Middlesex County D.A.
Edward Markey 14 % Martha Coakley 12 %
--------------------------------- ----------------------------------
Congressman Somebody Else/Don't
Martin Meehan 13 % Know 43 %
--------------------------------- ----------------------------------
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