SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture "momentum" swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness.
“Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November.”
Examples:
-- In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.
-- In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.
-- In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.
Each poll was conducted of an entire metropolitan area, known as a TV market, and defined by Nielsen Media Research as the "Designated Market Area" (DMA). In no metropolitan area, in any part of the country, did Kerry's numbers go up. Four separate polls of 500 adults each were conducted in 30 TV markets and in 2 states. (128 discrete pieces of opinion research; 64,000 separate telephone interviews.) Each survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5%.
The polls were conducted:
-- 7/22/04: The week before the DNC
-- 7/30/04: The day after Kerry's acceptance speech
-- 8/26/04: The week before the RNC
-- 9/3/04: The day after Bush's acceptance speech.
"The Democrats are eviscerated," says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA. "Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November."
Tracking data:
List Ranked by Size
of TV Market as
Defined by Nielsen
Media Research; Who Will
DMA=Designated Win in BEFORE AFTER BEFORE AFTER SIZE OF
Market Area November? DNC DNC RNC RNC 'BOUNCE'
------------------------------------------------------------- --------
TV Market Sponsor 7/22/04 7/30/04 8/26/04 9/3/04
------------- -------- -------- ------- ------- ------- ------ -------
New York City
DMA WABC-TV Bush 39% 39% 39% 58% + 19%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 54% 57% 53% 37% - 17%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Los Angeles
DMA KABC-TV Bush 38% 48% 51% 59% + 21%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 56% 48% 46% 38% - 18%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Philadelphia
DMA WCAU-TV Bush 40% 36% 44% 54% + 14%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 53% 60% 52% 43% - 10%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Boston DMA WBZ-TV Bush 45% 37% 44% 56% + 11%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 49% 59% 50% 39% - 10%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Detroit DMA WDIV-TV Bush 47% 43% 41% 56% + 9%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 47% 52% 54% 39% - 8%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Houston DMA KPRC-TV Bush 54% 54% 57% 69% + 15%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 42% 42% 39% 29% - 13%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Seattle DMA KING-TV Bush 44% 45% 38% 55% + 11%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 50% 48% 56% 42% - 8%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Phoenix DMA KPNX-TV Bush 54% 53% 62% 60% + 6%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 41% 43% 33% 35% - 6%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Denver DMA KUSA-TV Bush 49% 50% 55% 63% + 14%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 45% 44% 41% 33% - 12%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Pittsburgh
DMA KDKA-TV Bush 44% 46% 49% 64% + 20%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 52% 49% 47% 33% - 19%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
St. Louis DMA KSDK-TV Bush 45% 45% 46% 57% + 12%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 48% 50% 50% 40% -8%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Baltimore DMA WMAR-TV Bush 48% 41% 50% 60% + 12%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 45% 55% 45% 36% -9%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Indianapolis
DMA WXIN-TV Bush 54% 54% 57% 61% + 7%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 40% 44% 38% 36% -4%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
San Diego DMA KGTV-TV Bush 51% 58% 52% 61% + 10%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 44% 33% 43% 34% -10%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Charlotte DMA WBTV-TV Bush 58% 53% 58% 65% + 7%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 37% 43% 39% 32% -5%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Raleigh NC
DMA WTVD-TV Bush 44% 48% 45% 59% + 15%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 51% 49% 51% 37% -14%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
San Antonio
DMA WOAI-TV Bush 55% 53% 56% 67% + 12%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 40% 42% 39% 31% - 9%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Grand Rapids
DMA WZZM-TV Bush 50% 53% 54% 56% + 6%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 45% 42% 41% 39% - 6%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Buffalo DMA WGRZ-TV Bush 44% 41% 48% 56% + 12%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 52% 55% 48% 40% - 12%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Oklahoma City
DMA KFOR-TV Bush 61% 56% 64% 76% + 15%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 36% 40% 32% 22% - 14%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Providence RI
DMA WLNE-TV Bush 37% 32% 41% 51% + 14%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 59% 61% 54% 45% - 14%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Louisville
DMA WHAS-TV Bush 56% 56% 56% 68% + 12%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 37% 40% 40% 28% - 9%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Jacksonville
DMA WTLV-TV Bush 60% 65% 62% 68% + 8%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 37% 31% 34% 27% - 10%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Las Vegas DMA KVBC-TV Bush 44% 47% 46% 55% + 11%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 51% 50% 48% 40% - 11%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Mobile AL DMA WKRG-TV Bush 63% 60% 61% 69% + 6%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 34% 37% 36% 29% - 5%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Knoxville DMA WBIR-TV Bush 60% 56% 60% 69% + 9%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 36% 40% 35% 28% - 8%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Wichita DMA KWCH-TV Bush 61% 59% 66% 70% + 9%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 34% 37% 29% 27% - 7%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Des Moines
DMA WHO-TV Bush 49% 47% 50% 58% + 9%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 47% 49% 45% 37% - 10%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Tucson DMA KVOA-TV Bush 50% 44% 50% 60% + 10%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 45% 53% 45% 37% - 8%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
Spokane DMA KHQ-TV Bush 55% 57% 59% 67% + 12%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 41% 38% 36% 30% - 11%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
State of
Maine WCSH-TV Bush 46% 42% 47% 57% + 11%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 50% 54% 47% 39% - 11%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
State of PA WNEP-TV Bush 47% 45% 51% 59% + 12%
------------- -----------------------------------------------
Kerry 47% 52% 44% 36% - 11%
------------- ----------------------------------------------- --------
SurveyUSA is the nation's largest public opinion pollster. SurveyUSA does true random-sample telephone opinion polling for 50 TV stations under long-term exclusive contract. Results of these surveys are not intended to forecast the outcome of the presidential election in November nor predict how respondents would vote in an election "today"; rather, results here are intended solely to measure shifts in momentum, which can reveal much about the public's collective psyche. Momentum can and does change in a campaign, sometimes dramatically. Events may well happen during this campaign to shift momentum back to the Democrats just as suddenly as it has here shifted to the Republicans. Results presented here should not be confused with SurveyUSA Election Polls, which are conducted over a longer field period, and which tightly screen for registered and likely voters, and which do in fact ask respondents how they would vote in an election "today."
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