Big Drop in Those Who Believe That Global Warming Is Coming

Those who believe it is a serious problem have also declined

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--As President Obama prepares to head to Copenhagen next week, a new Harris Poll finds that those who believe that the release of carbon dioxide and other gases will lead to global warming has dropped from 71% two years ago to only 51% now. While many people are not sure, those who do not believe that carbon dioxide emissions will cause global warming have increased from 23% to 29% since 2007.

“Do you believe the theory that increased carbon dioxide and other gases released into the atmosphere will, if unchecked lead to global warming and an increase in average temperatures, or not?”

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll^® of 2,303 adults surveyed online between November 2 and 11, 2009 by Harris Interactive^®.

Other interesting findings in this survey include:

• Most people do not know that the main topic to be discussed at the international conference in Copenhagen in December is global warming and climate change. Just over half (52%) say they do not know what it is about and many people think the main topic is something else. Only 28% believe global warming and climate change is the main topic.
• The 51% who believe emissions will cause climate change is by far the lowest number recorded in any Harris Poll since we started asking this question 12 years ago. Since 2000, 70% or more of adults have believed this. This big change is mainly a result of a big increase in those who are not sure, up from 6% in 2007 to 21% now.
• Opinions on global warming are politically polarized. There is a huge difference between the 73% of Democrats who believe that greenhouse emissions cause global warming and the 28% of Republicans and 49% of Independents who believe this.
• Notwithstanding the decline in those who believe that emissions will cause global warming, most people (75%) think we should treat the possibility of global warming as a serious problem. However, there has been a modest drop in those who think it should be treated as a very serious problem from 46% in 2007 to 41% now.
  
  There are also big differences by party: 63% of Democrats but only 17% of Republicans and 38% of Independents believe global warming should be treated as a very serious problem.

So what?

The sharp drop in those who believe that greenhouse emissions will cause global warming will make it harder for leaders to introduce new policies to promote alternative energy sources and reduce our carbon footprint.

The large differences between the attitudes of Democrats and Republicans will also make it more difficult to develop new bipartisan energy policies.

TABLE 1
COP15 – UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 2009
"In December, there will be a major international conference in Copenhagen, Denmark. Do you know which of these will be the main topic to be discussed?”
Base: All Adults
	November 2009
	%
Global warming and climate change	28
Economic crisis	9
Nuclear weapons	3
Health & epidemics	3
Terrorism	2
International trade	1
Third world development	1
Something else	1
Drugs	*
Crime	*
Foreign aid	*
Not at all sure	52

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 2
BELIEF IN GLOBAL WARMING
"Do you believe the theory that increased carbon dioxide and other gases released into the atmosphere will, if unchecked lead to global warming and an increase in average temperatures, or not?”
Base: All Adults
	1997	2000	2001	2002	2007	2009
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Believe	67	72	75	74	71	51
Do not believe	21	20	19	19	23	29
Not sure	12	9	6	7	6	21

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 3
BELIEF IN GLOBAL WARMING – BY PARTY
"Do you believe the theory that increased carbon dioxide and other gases released into the atmosphere will, if unchecked lead to global warming and an increase in average temperatures, or not?”
Base: All Adults
	Total	Party ID
		Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%
Believe	51	28	73	49
Do not believe	29	51	8	31
Not sure	21	21	19	20

TABLE 4
TREATMENT OF GLOBAL WARMING
"Do you think that the possibility of global warming should be treated as a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem or not a serious problem?”
Base: All Adults
	1997	2000	2009
	%	%	%
Very serious	47	46	41
Somewhat serious	40	39	34
Not a serious problem	11	13	22
Not sure	2	1	4

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 5
HOW SERIOUS IS GLOBAL WARMING – BY PARTY
"Do you think that the possibility of global warming should be treated as a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem or not a serious problem?”
Base: All Adults
	Total	Party ID
		Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%
Very serious	41	17	63	38
Somewhat serious	34	37	30	35
Not a serious problem	22	41	3	25
Not sure	4	4	3	2

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States November 2 and 11, 2009 among 2,303 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J37281

Q655, 660, 665

The Harris Poll^® #137, December 2, 2009

By Humphrey Taylor, Chairman, The Harris Poll

About Harris Interactive

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