The Harris Poll® Annual Confidence Index Rises 10 Points

Those saying they have great deal of confidence in White House rises 21 points

ROCHESTER, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Over the past four decades, The Harris Poll has measured the confidence, or lack of confidence, in the leaders of major institutions. This year’s survey finds that confidence has increased substantially since last year and fourteen of the sixteen items listed show a rise in confidence. Overall, The Harris Poll Confidence Index has risen ten points this year.

These are the results of The Harris Poll of 1,010 adults surveyed by telephone between February 10 and 15, 2009.

As a result of the rise in confidence levels, The Harris Poll Confidence Index had risen very sharply from 44 in 2008 to 54 this year. This is close to where it had been between 2004 and 2007.

Largest Changes from Last Year

One institution stands out for having the largest increase. Those who have a “great deal of confidence” in the leadership in the White House have more than doubled from 15% last year to 36% this year – a gain of fully 21 points. While one might assume this type of jump would happen with every new president that has not been the case.

• In 2001, after George W. Bush was inaugurated, those saying they had a great deal of confidence in the leadership in the White House showed no change (25% in both 2000 and 2001);
• After Bill Clinton was sworn into office, those saying they had a great deal of confidence in the White House dropped slightly from 25% in 1992 to 23% in 1993;
• When George H. W. Bush became president, there was a slight increase from 17% saying they had a great deal of confidence in the leadership of the White House in 1988 to 20% in 1989;
• Ronald Reagan saw an increase when he became president as 18% of Americans in 1980 said they had a great deal of confidence in the leadership of the White House while 28% said the same in 1981, an increase of 10 points; and,
• Up until this year Jimmy Carter was the stand out as just 11% of Americans said they had a great deal of confidence in the White House leadership in 1976 but this number jumped 20 points to 31% in 1977.

This poll also shows substantial increases in the number of people who have a great deal of confidence in:

• Major Educational Institutions, up eight points from 32% to 40%;
• The Military, up seven points from 51% to 58%.

There are only two institutions which show a decrease in the number of people who have a great deal of confidence in them:

• Wall Street, down seven points from 11% to 4%;
• Major Companies, down three points from 14% to 11%.

Institutions at the Top and Bottom of the List

In this year’s survey the leaders of six institutions enjoy the most confidence:

• The military (58% have a great deal of confidence);
• Small business (48%);
• Major educational institutions (40%);
• The White House (36%);
• Medicine (34%);
• Organized religion (30%);

Leaders of the following institution engender the lowest levels of confidence:

• Wall Street (only 4% have a great deal of confidence);
• The Congress (9%);
• Law firms (11%);
• Major Companies (11%);
• The press (12%);

Republicans Have More Confidence in the Leaders of Some Institutions and Democrats Have More Confidence in Others

Republicans tend to have more confidence than Democrats in the leaders of:

• The military (65% vs. 49%);
• Small business (58% vs. 39%);
• Organized religion (36% vs. 22%);
• Major companies (14% vs. 18%);

Democrats, on the other hand, tend to have more confidence in the leaders of:

• Major educational institutions (49% vs. 33%);
• The White House (36% vs. 14%);
• Television news (32% vs. 13%);
• Organized labor (19% vs. 9%);
• Congress (14% vs. 4%).

So What?

Public perceptions of different institutions and their leaders matter. They influence behavior. Legislators and regulators are probably more likely to take a tougher line with unpopular institutions than with popular ones and this is seen by the recent Capitol Hill grilling of corporate leaders by Members of Congress. The media may also play up “bad” stories about the leaders of unpopular institutions. What is also clear is that President Obama has high approval numbers and people have confidence in him and his leadership. As a result, some Republicans are reluctant to directly challenge him.

Perceptions over time change and the rationale behind those changes are not always under a leaders’ control. At the moment, Americans have a sense of hope in the new president and this sense of optimism translates to 14 of 16 institutions seeing a rise in those having a great deal of confidence in their leaders. If the economic crisis continues until next year, that sense of optimism may erode along with confidence in the leaders of these institutions.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 10 and 15, 2009 among a nationwide cross section of 1,010 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity), and number of phone lines voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Full data tables and methodology are available at www.harrisinteractive.com.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

1. The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.

2. All items have equal weight.

3. The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.

4. In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original 10 items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.

5. Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.14).

6. In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research. With a long and rich history in multimodal research, powered by our science and technology, we assist clients in achieving business results. Harris Interactive serves clients globally through our North American, European and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

Harris Interactive Inc. 3/09