VacZine Analytics: Number of Available Vaccines Set to Double by 2015

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--New research from strategic consultancy VacZine Analytics suggests that the number of available vaccines in major Western markets could double by 2015 to 75-80 products. Around a tenth of these new vaccines could prevent diseases currently without a vaccination approach. The future doubling of available vaccines reflects a marked increase in vaccine research and development along with a longer-term drive to extend preventative strategies to other areas of medical need.

Currently five major players dominate the vaccine industry accounting for around 80-90% of global revenue (~$16 bn, 2007). With the success of its new Human Papillomavirus (HPV) quadrivalent vaccine Gardasil, Merck & Co experienced the fastest growth between 2006-07 reporting $4.2 bn of revenue in 2007 although GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi Pasteur closely follow. Like Gardasil over the next few years many new vaccines are predicted to achieve blockbuster status (>$1 bn revenue) such as those for meningitis serogroups B and ACWY and pnuemococcal infections.

VacZine Analytics calculates that large companies are working on around 40 major vaccine projects in the clinical and submission stages. A further 55 new vaccines are also being developed by a diverse range of 35 smaller companies. The majority of projects in the total current vaccine pipeline are in the early stages of clinical testing e.g. Phase I and Phase II. 18 projects are in the last stages e.g. Phase III and submission and are focused on supporting key business franchises such as influenza, meningitis and pediatric combinations. This reflects increasing efforts among large players to defend near-term market share.

Significantly, an estimated 40% of total current R&D activity is focused on vaccines for diseases where no precedent exists. For example, new vaccines are being developed to prevent hospital infections caused by MRSA, Clostridium difficile and Psuedomonas aureginosa. Other vaccines are focused on serious infections in the newborn such as group B Streptococcus (GBS), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV). Although all major companies are focused on new projects, newer entrants to the industry such as Novartis Vaccines (formerly Chiron) and AstraZeneca have a higher proportion of these projects in the pipeline. Other new entrants such as Pfizer are expected to continue this trend in an effort to establish newer markets segments of the future.

In recent years the vaccine industry has also seen increased consolidation and alliance activity as major companies seek to source new antigens and technologies to differentiate their portfolios. Notable alliances are the strategic partnership between Novartis Vaccines and Austrian-based Intercell AG, which gives Novartis an option to develop a number of early stage projects. Intercell has other arrangements with Merck & Co and Wyeth. Another smaller company, Acambis has also been active in the deal space securing commitment from Sanofi Pasteur regarding their ChimeriVax based vaccines for West Nile River virus and Japanese Encephalitis.

Despite the flurry of deal making with the vaccines space VacZine Analytics estimates that there is around 60-70 vaccines currently unpartnered. To larger companies these projects might be considered unattractive because approximately half are yet to reach clinical stages and a third are within the high-risk “therapeutic” category. John Savopoulos, Director of VacZine Analytics who led the research commented, “Although a selected number of unpartnered vaccines programs are worth closer inspection, overall there isn’t much available. Our research emphasizes that larger companies must focus strongly on internal R&D because the majority of growth in 2015 will come from completely new vaccines”.